Malaysia Mining Report 2016

Date: June 15, 2016
Pages: 48
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Malaysia's mining output growth will remain weaker than seen in previous years due to continued mineral price weakness. Despite this, the continued presence of major miners across the gold and tin sub-sectors will ensure that output from both segments continues to grow over the forecast period, albeit at a slower rate to that seen in recent years.

Latest Developments & Structural Trends
  • We forecast gold prices to edge higher over the coming months, averaging USD1,275/oz in 2016 and reaching USD1,500/oz by 2020 (see: 'Gold: Upward Revision On Inflation Pressure, May 6).
  • We forecast Malaysia's overall gold production to average annual growth of 6.0% during 2016-2020 to total 184 thousand ounces (koz). While still high by most global comparisons, this represents a marked dip on recent growth levels, which are estimated to have averaged 8.4% a year during 2010-2015.
  • We have increased our 2016 tin price forecast to USD16,500/tonne owing to a stabilisation in the Chinese economy over Q116 that has boosted all industrial metal prices significantly over January-April. While we expect consolidation over the remainder of 2016, tin prices will continue to recover beyond 2016 as the global market posts sustained market deficits and inventories dwindle.
  • The country's largest producer Malaysia Smelting Corporation's renewed focus on local operations means we expect Malaysia's overall tin output to remain largely unaffected by the current slump in global prices, especially as we forecast global prices to start to rebound from 2017. Malaysia's refined tin output will face an average annual growth of 1.4% during 2016-2020, which is a significant increase from the -2.2% growth from 2011-2015. Nevertheless, Malaysia's global market share will fall modestly from 10.2% in 2016 to 9.9% in 2020.
  • We expect Malaysia's bauxite mining sector to stagnate over our forecast period to 2020, as it is facing growing environmental, land and labour issues and an impending relaxation of Indonesia's bauxite ore export ban in 2016. Bauxite production will register an average annual growth rate of 4% over 2016-2020, which is a significant fall from the 264% recorded over 2011-2015.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Malaysia - Mining Industry Value
Industry Forecast
Gold: Major Producers To Weather The Storm
Latest Developments
  Table: Gold Production Forecast (Malaysia 2014-2020)
Structural Trends
  Table: Malaysia - Select Gold Mining Projects
Tin: Price Slump Adds To Weak Growth Outlook
Latest Developments
  Table: Malaysia: Tin Production Forecast
  Table: Global - Top 10 Refined Tin Producers By 2015 Output
Malaysia - Stagnant Growth Ahead For Malaysia's Bauxite Sector
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Asia Risk/Reward Index
Key Takeaways
Latest Revisions
  Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index
Regulatory Development
Key Details
State Mineral Enactment A Boon For Miners
  Table: Breakdown Of Mining Licence
  Table: Breakdown Of Prospecting & Exploration Licence
Trade & Investment Risk Analysis
Commodities Forecast
Commodities Outlook
  Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Company Profile
Monument Mining
  Table: Monument Mining - Key Financial Data
Malaysia Smelting Corporation Berhad
  Table: MSC - Key Financial Data
Regional Overview
Asia Overview
Slowing Iron Ore Production
Indian Coal Consumption To Outperform
China & India To Lead In Outbound Investment
Indonesian Ban Moderation Ahead
Chinese Coal & Steel Sectors To Consolidate Slowly
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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