India Mining Report Q2 2016

Date: March 9, 2016
Pages: 88
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)

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BMI View: India's mining sector will experience solid growth, primarily boosted by the country's positive reforms and vast mineral reserves. Despite this, the sector will continue to face challenges due to the country's inadequate operating environment, mining royalties and low metals prices, which will prevent India from reaching its full growth potential.

Latest Developments & Structural Trends
  • India will continue to suffer from a persistent coal deficit over the coming years although the country possesses one of the world's largest coal reserves and has significant production growth potential. We forecast India's coal output to grow from 753mn tonnes (mnt) in 2016 to 1,014mnt in 2020, posting average annual growth of 7.6% during 2016-2020, a sizeable acceleration from an average growth of 4.5% annually during 2011-2015. This is because the Indian government has made great progress in improving coal mine production and coal offtake in recent quarters.
  • We forecast India's iron ore output to grow from 159.9mnt in 2016 to 198.8mnt in 2020. This represents an average annual growth of 5.0% during 2016-2020, higher than the average contraction of 5.6% y-o-y over 2011-2015, following mining bans in the three largest iron-ore producing states of Goa, Odisha and Karnataka, which have since been lifted. Although the passing of the Mines & Minerals Development and Regulation Act will support India's iron ore output growth, weak iron ore prices will limit the sector growth outlook. We forecast iron ore prices to average USD52.0/tonne over 2016-2020, significantly lower than USD115.0/tonne during 2011-2015. This is due to oversupply from Australian miners and weakened Chinese demand for iron ore.
BMI Industry View
  Table: India - Mining Industry Value Forecast
Latest Developments & Structural Trends
Industry Forecast
Bauxite: Ordinance To Boost Production
Latest Developments
  Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (India 2015-2020)
  Table: India - Bauxite Projects
Structural Trends
Iron Ore: MMDR Act, Two Sides Of A Coin
Latest Developments
  Table: Iron Ore Production Forecast (India 2012-2020)
  Table: India - New Iron Ore Projects
Structural Trends
Zinc: HZL To Lift Growth
Latest Developments
  Table: Zinc Production Forecast (India 2012-2020)
  Table: India - Select Zinc Mining Projects
Structural Trends
Coal India To Lead Growth Drive
Latest Developments
  Table: Coal Production Forecast (India 2014-2020)
  Table: India - Select Coal Mine Projects
Structural Trends
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
India - Risk/Reward Index
Industry Rewards
Country Rewards
Industry Risks
Country Risks
Asia Risk Reward Index
Australia Stays On Top While India & Myanmar Gain
Shifting Scores Reflect Changing Sector Dynamics
  Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index
Regulatory Development
Trade & Investment Risk Analysis
Commodities Forecast
Commodity Strategy
Ferrous Metals
Iron Ore: Price Weakness To Continue Over Coming Years
Steel: Oversupply To Drag Down Prices
Non-Ferrous Metals
Aluminium: Continued Weakness, But No Sharp Downturn
Copper: Recent Relief Rally To Fade
Lead: Prices Weakness To Continue
Nickel: Subdued Prices Due To Weak Demand Growth
Tin: Supply Deficits To Underpin Rally In Tin Prices
Zinc: Positive Multi-Year Outlook, But Increasing Risks In Months Ahead
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
  Table: India - Select Listed Mining Companies
Company Profile
Coal India Ltd (CIL)
  Table: Coal India Ltd - Key Financial Data
Hindustan Copper
  Table: Hindustan Copper-Supply Chain Analysis
  Table: Hindustan Copper - Key Financial Data
  Table: NMDC- Supply Chain Analysis
  Table: NMDC - Key Financial Data
Global Company Strategy - Vedanta Resources - Q1 2016
Latest Financial Results
Company Strategy
  Table: Vedanta Resources - Supply Chain Analysis
Company Details
  Table: Vedanta Resources - Key Financial Data
Regional Overview
Continued Domination Of Iron Ore Production
Indian Coal Consumption To Outperform
China & India To Lead In Outbound Investment
Indonesian Ban To Continue
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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