China Mining Report Q3 2016

Date: May 11, 2016
Pages: 120
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: C315C3C206DEN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: China's mining sector will continue to be pressurised by low mineral prices over the coming years. Government-led consolidation will support production growth by state-owned enterprises as smaller miners shut operations, however, depleting reserves, falling ore grades and the relatively short life span of domestic mines will further drive outward Chinese investment.

Latest Updates & Structural Trends
  • While cooling Chinese economic growth will adversely impact mining operations, we expect the impact to vary across different mineral segments. Copper and tin will do better due to the better price outlook for these minerals than iron ore and coal.
  • China's structural shortfall in domestic production combined with the government's desire for resource security will continue to spur overseas mining deals. Although China's reliance on imports will increase due to the country's depleting reserves, falling ore grades and the relatively short life span of mines, outbound investment will face more caution, as Chinese projects are increasingly faced with rising costs and project delays. As a result, Chinese firms' 2015 mining merger and acquisition activity (M&A) in Latin America slowed to USD2.1bn, a 72.8% y-o-y decrease from 2014. Chinese mining M&A activity in the Middle East and Africa also fell significantly, by 46.0% y-o-y, to USD135mn in 2015. Chinese metal investment in Sub Saharan Africa also dropped in 2015 to USD1.2bn, significantly lower than USD4.0bn in 2014 and USD8.4bn in 2013.
BMI Industry View
  Table: China Mining Industry Value
Latest Updates & Structural Trends
  Table: China - Mineral Round Up
Industry Forecast
China - 13th Five-Year Plan Signals Further Mining Consolidation
Bauxite: Imports To Remain Strong
Latest Developments
  Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (China 2012-2020)
Structural Trends
Imports: Growth In Short Term And Long Term
Risks To Production Outlook
Coal: Government Consolidation To Hamper Growth
Latest Developments
  Table: Coal Production Forecasts
  Table: China - Select Coal Mining Projects
Structural Trends
Copper: Slow Growth Ahead
Latest Developments
  Table: Copper Production Forecast (China 2012-2020)
  Table: China - Select Copper Projects
Structural Trends
Gold: Overseas Investment To Remain Strong
  Table: Gold Production Forecast (China 2012-2020)
  Table: China - Overseas Gold Mining Deals
Iron Ore: Output To Decline, Imports To Slow
Latest Developments
  Table: China Iron Ore Production Forecast
  Table: China Iron Ore Projects
Structural Trends
Price Weakness To Hurt Miners
Small-Scale Miners To Come Under The Most Pressure
Strict Regulations To Increase Import Preference
Nickel: Weak Ore Production And Imports, Strong Refined Imports
Latest Developments
  Table: Nickel Production Forecast (China 2012-2020)
  Table: China - Select Nickel Projects
Structural Trends
Further Consolidation
Risks To Outlook
Tin: Yunnan Tin To Support Growth
Latest Developments
  Table: Tin Production Forecast (China 2012-2020)
  Table: China Selected Tin Projects
Structural Trends
Risks To Outlook
Lead: Stagnant Growth Ahead
Latest Developments
  Table: Lead Production Forecast (China 2012-2020)
  Table: China - Select Lead Mining Projects
Structural Trends
Risks To Outlook
Zinc: Growth To Slow, Imports To Rise
Latest Developments
  Table: Zinc Production Forecast (China 2012-2020)
  Table: China - Select Zinc Projects
Structural Trends
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Risk/Reward Index
Industry Rewards
Country Rewards
Industry Risks
Country Risks
Asia Risk/Reward Index
Key Takeaways
Latest Revisions
  Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index
Regulatory Development
Trade And Investment Risk Analysis
Commodities Forecast
Commodity Strategy
Ferrous Metals
Iron Ore: Price Weakness To Continue Over Coming Years
Steel: Oversupply To Drag Down Prices
Non-Ferrous Metals
Aluminium: Continued Weakness, But No Sharp Downturn
Copper: Recent Relief Rally To Fade
Lead: Prices Weakness To Continue
Nickel: Subdued Prices Due To Weak Demand Growth
Tin: Supply Deficits To Underpin Rally In Tin Prices
Zinc: Positive Multi-Year Outlook, But Increasing Risks In Months Ahead
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Majors Firms
  Table: China - Key Financial Data For Select Listed Mining Companies
Company Profile
Jiangxi Copper
  Table: Supply Chain Analysis
  Table: Jiangxi Copper - Key Financial Data
Shandong Gold
  Table: Supply Chain Analysis
  Table: Shandong Gold - Key Financial Data
Global Company Strategy - Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) - Q3 2016
  Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts
Company Background
  Table: Chalco - Key Financial Data
China Shenhua Energy
  Table: Shenhua Energy - Supply Chain Analysis
  Table: China Shenhua Energy - Key Financial Data
Regional Overview
Asia Overview
Slowing Iron Ore Production
Indian Coal Consumption To Outperform
China & India To Lead In Outbound Investment
Indonesian Ban Moderation Ahead
Chinese Coal & Steel Sectors To Consolidate Slowly
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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