Brazil Mining Report Q3 2016

Date: July 6, 2016
Pages: 68
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Brazil's mining industry value will continue a multi-year decline in 2016. Nonetheless, robust iron ore production growth and a broader stabilisation of metals prices will support the country's mining industry outlook over 2017-2020.

Latest Developments & Structural Trends
  • Iron ore will be Brazil's mining industry's growth bright spot due to the sector's low production costs, and a strong output growth strategy from Brazilian mining giant Vale. We expect Brazil's share of global iron ore production to increase from 14.4% in 2016 to 17.7% by 2020, with the sector's output reaching 581mnt in 2020 from 454mnt in 2016.
  • On June 13, the USD5.7bn civil lawsuit against Vale and BHP Billiton over the Samarco dam burst was dropped. The joint-venture firm, Samarco Mineracao is reportedly looking to restructure USD1.6bn in loans and USD2.2bn in bonds, as operations at the mine will not resume during 2016.
  • Investment, merger and acquisition activity will pick up in Brazil's mining sector as debt-laden firms seek to offload prime assets. Most notably, in April, Anglo American sold the niobium and phosphate business in Brazil to Chinese firm China Molybdenum for USD1.5bn. On May 9, Yamana Gold announced the USD52.0mn purchase of the Riacho dos Machados gold project from Carpathian Gold.
  • Brazil's nickel production will contract in 2016, as the key producer Votorantim Metais suspended operations at the Niquelandia mine and Sao Miguel Paulista metal processor starting in February. While the firm accounted for approximately 37% of Brazil's total nickel output in 2015, Votorantim will exhaust stockpiles before seeing negative growth and may restart operations as prices stabilise over the coming quarters.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Brazil Mining Industry Value Forecast (2014-2020)
Latest Developments & Structural Trends
Industry Forecast
Bauxite: Consolidated Sector To See Muted Growth
  Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (Brazil 2014-2020)
Risks To Outlook
Gold: New Projects To Attract Investors
  Table: Gold Production Forecast (Brazil 2014-2020)
Structural Trends
  Table: Brazil - Key Gold Projects
Iron Ore: Strong Growth Ahead
  Table: Iron Ore Forecast (Brazil 2014-2020)
Structural Trends
  Table: Brazil - Major Iron Ore Projects
Nickel: Output To Decline In 2016
  Table: Nickel Production (Brazil 2014-2020)
Tin: Minimal Growth Dependent On Pitinga Mine
  Table: Tin Production (Brazil 2014-2020)
Indonesian Ban To Boost Brazilian Exports
Mining Risk/Reward Index
Brazil Risk/Reward Index
Industry Rewards
Country Rewards
Industry Risks
Country Risks
Americas: Risk/Reward Index
Key Takeaways
Latest Revisions
  Table: Americas - Mining Risk/Reward Index
Regulatory Development
Trade & Investment Risk Analysis
Commodities Forecast
Commodities Outlook
  Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Brazil - Largest Listed Mining Companies Financial Data, 2015
Company Profile
Vale - Q3 2016
Company Overview
Company Strategy
Latest Results
  Table: Vale - Key Financial Data
Global Company Strategy - Anglo American - Q3 2016
  Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts
Latest Results
Company Strategy
  Table: Anglo American - Financial Data
Global Company Strategy - Alcoa - Q3 2016
  Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts
Company Background
Company Strategy
  Table: Alcoa - Key Financial Data
Regional Overview
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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