Brazil Mining Report Q2 2015

Date: April 8, 2015
Pages: 84
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: Download
ID: B621E471D3EEN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Brazil's mining industry will see further growth over the next five years, though the industry's total value will not grow at the same heady rates experienced in the previous decade. Still, mine output will expand as both domestic and foreign firms increase production of both industrial and precious metals.

Despite weak mineral prices, mine output growth in Brazil will remain solid, particularly for iron ore, to 2019. In the case of iron ore, we forecast prices will average lower year-on-year in 2015 at USD60/tonne, compared to USD97/tonne in 2014. Further ahead, we expect prices to experience nearly flat growth to 2019. Nevertheless, Brazilian firm Vale will continue to take advantage of its low unit costs and seek to increase its global market share as higher-cost production in other countries comes offline. Vale cited cash costs slightly above USD23/tonne in Q414, with costs dipping to as low as USD11/tonne for certain mine assets. Furthermore, continued US dollar strength, and resultant depreciation in the Brazilian real, will further cap input costs, which are denominated in local currency. Shipping times and costs to China are longer and higher compared with Australian iron ore producers though, which may lead to Australian producers capturing a greater share of the Chinese iron ore import market.
BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Bauxite: Multi-year Production Growth
Foreign Firms To Drive Growth
Risks To Outlook
  Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (Brazil 2011-2019)
Gold: Weaker Prices To Slow Production Growth
  Table: Select Greenfield Gold Projects
  Table: Gold Production Forecast (Brazil 2011-2019)
Iron Ore: Growing Production Despite Flat Price Growth
Vale To Stay On Top
Risks To Outlook
  Table: Iron Ore Production Forecast (Brazil 2011-2019)
Nickel: Production Growth On Modest Price Gains & Chinese Demand
  Table: Nickel Production Forecast (Brazil 2011-2019)
Tin: Minimal Growth, But Risks To Upside
Indonesian Ban To Boost Brazilian Market Share
  Table: Tin Production Forecast (Brazil 2011-2019)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Americas Risk Reward Index
Regional Risks Increase Modestly
Weak Prices To Hurt, While Stronger Dollar A Mixed Blessing
Regional Outlook Unchanged Despite Some Reordering
  Table: Americas - Mining Risk/Reward Index
Brazil Risk/Reward Index
Industry Rewards
Country Rewards
Industry Risks
Country Risks
  Table: Brazil - Mining Production & Growth
Regulatory Development
Recent Developments
Potential Clarification Ahead
Higher Royalties Could Present Modest Challenges
Licensing & Permitting Difficulties Show No Sign Of Abating
Tax Regime
Persistent Corruption Being Addressed
  Table: Brazil - Political Overview
  Table: Regional Regulatory Index
Commodities Forecast
Commodity Strategy
Ferrous Metals
Iron Ore: Price Weakness To Continue Over Coming Years
Steel: Oversupply To Drag Down Prices
Non-Ferrous Metals
Aluminium: Continued Weakness, But No Sharp Downturn
Copper: Recent Relief Rally To Fade
Lead: Prices Weakness To Continue
Nickel: Subdued Prices Due To Weak Demand Growth
Tin: Supply Deficits To Underpin Rally In Tin Prices
Zinc: Positive Multi-Year Outlook, But Increasing Risks In Months Ahead
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Financial Data For Key Firms Listed In Brazil
Foreign Firms Maintain Interest In Base & Precious Metals
Golden Opportunities Losing Shine
Company Profile
Global Company Strategy - Alcoa - Q2 2015
Company Overview
Company Strategy
Latest Results
  Table: Alcoa - Key Financial Data
  Table: Alcoa - Supply Chain Analysis
Company Details
Global Company Strategy - Vale - Q2 2015
Company Overview
Company Strategy
Latest Results
  Table: Vale - Supply Chain Analysis
  Table: Vale - Key Financial Data
Company Details
Global Company Strategy - Anglo American - Q2 2015
Company Strategy
Latest Results
  Table: Anglo American - Financial Data
Regional Overview
Three Key Themes For Americas Mining
Regulatory Changes On Horizon
Dollar Strength To Be Mixed Blessing
Region To Grow More Dominant As Top Copper Source
Global Industry Overview
Global Overview




Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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