Australia Mining Report Q4 2016

Date: September 21, 2016
Pages: 115
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Gold, copper and bauxite will emerge as the Australian mining industry's production growth bright spots during 2016-2020. Iron ore and coal output growth will slow more markedly due to continued price weakness.

Although Australia will remain one of the world's largest mineral producers, growth will slow across the board due to continued mineral price weakness. The Australian mining sector will be particularly affected by China's economic slowdown, as the country accounts for almost 80.0% of the country's iron ore exports. We expect Australia's mining industry value to fall to USD94bn in 2016, down from USD106bn in 2015. We forecast Australia's mining industry value growth to pick up hereafter, reaching USD112.6bn in 2020. The potential return of La NiƱa this year poses downside risks to coal and iron ore production forecasts.

Latest Developments & Structural Trends

We forecast iron ore production in Australia to register average annual growth of 2.0% during 2016-2020 compared to 10.7% during 2011-2015.This is due to mothballing of mines from junior miners as iron ore prices remain weak as we believe that majors will stick to their production growth targets to crowd out high cost producers. Beyond 2016, iron ore production will start to slow from 4.9% in 2016 to -1.3% in 2020 on the back of low prices. We expect Australia to remain the top global producer of iron ore, with production increasing from 754 million tonnes (mnt) in 2016 to 792mnt by 2020. Australia's share of global output will average 25.5% during this period.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Australia Mining Industry Value
  Table: Australia Mining Industry Value
Latest Developments & Structural Trends
Industry Forecast
Bauxite: Amrun To Drive Growth
Latest Developments
  Table: Australia - Bauxite Production Forecast
  Table: Australia - Select Bauxite Projects
Structural Trends
Coal: Competition From South American Producers Ahead
Latest Developments
  Table: Coal Production Forecast (Australia 2012-2020)
  Table: Australia: Select Coal Projects
Structural Trends
Copper: Strong Growth Despite Weak Prices
Latest Developments
  Table: Copper Production Forecast (Australia 2012-2020)
  Table: Australia - Select Copper Projects
Structural Trends
Gold: Strong Growth Ahead
Latest Developments
  Table: Gold Production Forecast (Australia 2012-2020)
  Table: Australia - Largest Gold Mining Projects By Volume
Structural Trends
Iron Ore: No Long-Term Production Gains From Temporary Price Rally
Latest Developments
  Table: Australia Iron Ore Production Forecast
  Table: Australia - New Iron Ore Projects
Structural Trends
Lead: Dugald River To Drive Growth From 2018
Latest Developments
  Table: Lead Production Forecast (Australia 2012-2020)
  Table: Australia Selected Lead Projects
Structural Trends
Nickel: Production To Slow
Latest Developments
  Table: Nickel Production Forecast (Australia 2012-2020)
  Table: Australia - Select Nickel Projects
Structural Trends
Tin: Better Growth Ahead
Latest Developments
  Table: Tin Production Forecast (Australia 2012-2020)
  Table: Australia - Tin Mining Projects
Structural Trends
Zinc: Dugald River Only Bright Star
Latest Developments
  Table: Zinc Production Forecast (Australia 2012-2020)
  Table: Australia Selected Zinc Projects
Structural Trends
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Australia Risk/Reward Index
Industry Rewards
Country Rewards
Industry Risks
Country Risks
Asia Risk/Reward Index
Key Takeaways
Latest Revisions
  Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index
Regulatory Development
Key Regulation Facts
Trade & Investment Risk Analysis
  Table: Australia - Mineral Taxes
Commodities Forecast
Commodities Outlook
  Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Iron Ore Majors To Outperform
  Table: Financial Data For Key Mining Firms Listed In Australia
Company Profile
Global Company Strategy - Rio Tinto
  Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts
Company Analysis
  Table: Select Companies - Key Data
  Table: Rio Tinto - Key Projects
  Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data
Global Company Strategy - Glencore
  Table: Selected Commodities - Price Forecasts
Company Analysis
  Table: Glencore - Key Projects
  Table: Glencore - Key Financial Data
Global Company Strategy - MMG Limited - Q4 2016
  Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts
  Table: MMG Limited - Key Financial Data
BHP Billiton - Q4 2016
  Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts
Latest Financial Results
  Table: BHP Billiton - Key Financial Data
Regional Overview
Asia Overview
Slowing Iron Ore Production
Indian Coal Consumption To Outperform
China & India To Lead In Outbound Investment
Indonesian Ban Moderation Ahead
Chinese Coal & Steel Sectors To Consolidate Slowly
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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