Future of the South Korean Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Date: January 29, 2018
Pages: 149
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Future of the South Korean Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023
Future of the South Korean Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

SUMMARY

The Future of the South Korean Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023, published by Strategic Defence Intelligence, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

SYNOPSIS

This report offers detailed analysis of the South Korean defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following -
  • The South Korean defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the South Korean defense industry during 2019-2023, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns
  • Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
  • Porter’s Five Force analysis of the South Korean defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry
  • Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years
  • Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years
  • Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the South Korean defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis.
SCOPE
  • South Korea’s defense budget stands at US$40.5 billion in 2018, and the country is expected to cumulatively spend US$233.1 billion on its military over the forecast period.The main factors driving this growth are the rapid modernization of the country’s armed forces in recent years.
  • During 2014-2018, an average of 30.8% of the country’s total defense budget was allocated to capital expenditure; while an average of 69.2% was reserved for revenue expenditure. This is primarily due to South Korea’s future modernization programs. For instance, In March 2015, KAI, the primary contractor for the project, selected the Airbus H155 platform as a foundation for developing LAH-LCH helicopters in both military and civil helicopter configurations. The program plans to commission light civil helicopters (LCH) into service by 2020 and its armed Light Attack Helicopter (LAH) variant by 2022, with the eventual LAH helicopter requirement estimated to be 200 airframes.
  • The MoD is expected to invest in Fighters & Multi-Role Aircraft, Fighters and Multi-Role Aircraft MRO, Military IT- Networking, Infrastructure Construction and Attack Helicopters
REASONS TO BUY
  • This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the South Korean defense industry market trends for the coming five years
  • The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period
  • Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
  • A deep qualitative analysis of the South Korean defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter’s Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts


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1. INTRODUCTION

1.1. What is this Report About?
1.2. Definitions
1.3. Summary Methodology
1.4. About Strategic Defence Intelligence

2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

3. MARKET ATTRACTIVENESS AND EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES

3.1. Current Market Scenario
  3.1.1. Primary threat perception
  3.1.2. Military Doctrine & Strategy
  3.1.3. Military Fleet Size
3.2. Procurement Programs
  3.2.1. Ongoing procurement programs
  3.2.2. Future procurement programs
  3.2.3. Top Procurement Programs By Value (US$ Million) 2018-2023
  3.2.4. Social, Political and Economic Environment & Support for Defense Projects
  3.2.5. Political & Strategic Alliances
3.3. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
  3.3.1. South Korean defense expenditure expected to grow significantly during the forecast period
  3.3.2. Nuclear threats from North Korea, acquisition of new technology, and reduction in reliance on imports set to drive defense expenditure
  3.3.3. Military expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to remain at the same levels during the forecast period
3.4. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
  3.4.1. Capital expenditure share to increase over the next five years
  3.4.2. Capital expenditure expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.85% over the forecast period
  3.4.3. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase during the forecast period
3.5. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
  3.5.1. Homeland security (HLS) expenditure expected to grow steadily during the forecast period
  3.5.2. The majority of terror threats are from North Korea
  3.5.3. South Korea faces some threat from foreign terrorist organizations
  3.5.4. South Korea faces some level of threat from foreign terrorist organizations
  3.5.5. South Korea has a terrorism index score of 0.2
3.6. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
  3.6.1. South Korean defense expenditure expected to remain modest compared to leading spenders
  3.6.2. South Korea military expenditure is limited compared to the leading countries worldwide
  3.6.3. South Korea allocates a significant percentage of GDP towards defense
3.7. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
  3.7.1. Top 10 Defense market sectors by value (US$ Million) - Projections over period 2018-2023
  3.7.2. Fighters & Multi-Role Aircraft
  3.7.3. Fighters and Multi-Role Aircraft MRO
  3.7.4. Military IT- Networking
  3.7.5. Infrastructure Construction
  3.7.6. Attack Helicopters

4. DEFENSE PROCUREMENT MARKET DYNAMICS

4.1. Import Market Dynamics
  4.1.1. Defense imports expected to decrease during the forecast period
  4.1.2. The US dominated South Korean defense imports during the historic period
  4.1.3. Aircraft were the major defense imports during 2012-2016
4.2. Export Market Dynamics
  4.2.1. Defense exports grew considerably during the historic period
  4.2.2. Turkey dominated the South Korean defense export market during the historic period
  4.2.3. Artillery accounts for the major defense exports during 2012-2016

5. INDUSTRY DYNAMICS

5.1. Five Forces Analysis
  5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: low to medium
  5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: medium to High
  5.1.3. Barrier to entry: Medium
  5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: Medium
  5.1.5. Threat of substitution: High

6. MARKET ENTRY STRATEGY

6.1. Market Regulation
  6.1.1. Offset policy aids development of domestic defense industry
  6.1.2. FDI in the defense sector to become less complicated
6.2. Market Entry Route
  6.2.1. Budgeting process
  6.2.2. Procurement policy & process
  6.2.3. Technology transfer provides good market entry opportunities
  6.2.4. Research and development collaborations offer market access
  6.2.5. Joint ventures and licensing agreements open new market entry strategy choices
6.3. Key Challenges
  6.3.1. Intense Emphasis on Technology Transfer
  6.3.2. Industrial disputes and rigidity of labor market deter investment

7. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE AND STRATEGIC INSIGHTS

7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
7.2. Key Public Sector Companies
  7.2.1. Korea Aerospace Industries: overview
  7.2.2. Korea Aerospace Industries: Major Products and Services
  7.2.3. Korea Aerospace Industries: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
  7.2.4. Korea Aerospace Industries: alliances
  7.2.5. Korea Aerospace Industries: recent contract wins
  7.2.6. Korea Aerospace Industries: financial analysis
  7.2.7. Hanwha Techwin America: overview
  7.2.8. Hanwha Techwin: Major Products
  7.2.9. Hanwha Techwin: recent announcements and strategic initiatives:
  7.2.10. Hanwha Techwin: Alliances
  7.2.11. Hanwha Techwin: Recent Contract Wins
  7.2.12. Hanwha Corporation: overview
  7.2.13. Hanwha Corporation: Major products
  7.2.14. Hanwha Corporation: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
  7.2.15. Hanwha Corporation: alliances
  7.2.16. Hanwha Corporation: recent contract wins
  7.2.17. Hanwha Corporation: Financial Analysis
  7.2.18. Hyundai Heavy Industries: overview
  7.2.19. Hyundai Heavy Industries: products
  7.2.20. Hyundai Heavy Industries: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
  7.2.21. Hyundai Heavy Industries: alliances
  7.2.22. Hyundai Heavy Industries: recent contract wins
  7.2.23. Hyundai Heavy Industries: Financial Analysis
  7.2.24. Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering: overview
  7.2.25. Daewoo Shipbuilding: products
  7.2.26. Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering (DSME): recent announcements and strategic initiatives.
  7.2.27. Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering: alliances
  7.2.28. Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering: recent contract wins
  7.2.29. Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering: Financial Analysis
  7.2.30. Huneed Technologies: overview
  7.2.31. Huneed Technologies: products and services
  7.2.32. Huneed Technologies: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
  7.2.33. Huneed Technologies: Alliances
  7.2.34. Huneed Technologies: recent contract wins
  7.2.35. STX Engine: overview
  7.2.36. STX Engine: products and services
  7.2.37. STX Engine recent announcements and strategic initiatives
  7.2.38. STX Engine: alliances
  7.2.39. STX Engine: recent contract wins
  7.2.40. STX Engine: Financial Analysis
  7.2.41. S&T Dynamics overview
  7.2.42. S&T Dynamics: products
  7.2.43. S&T Dynamics: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
  7.2.44. S&T Dynamics: Recent Contract Wins
  7.2.45. S&T Dynamics: Financial Analysis
  7.2.46. Poongsan Corporation: overview
  7.2.47. Poongsan: products
  7.2.48. Poongsan Corporation: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
  7.2.49. Poongsan Corporation: alliances
  7.2.50. Poongsan Corporation: recent contract wins
  7.2.51. Poongsan Corporation: Financial Analysis
7.3. Key Private Sector Companies
  7.3.1. Samsung Thales: overview
  7.3.2. Samsung Thales: products and services
  7.3.3. Samsung Thales: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
  7.3.4. Samsung Thales: Alliances
  7.3.5. Samsung Thales: Recent Contract Wins
  7.3.6. LIG NEX1: overview
  7.3.7. LIG NEX1: Major Products
  7.3.8. LIG NEX1: Recent announcements and strategic initiatives
  7.3.9. LIG NEX1: Alliances
  7.3.10. LIG NEX1: Recent Contract Wins
  7.3.11. Doosan DST: Overview
  7.3.12. Doosan DST: products and services
  7.3.13. Doosan DST: Recent announcements and strategic initiatives
  7.3.14. Doosan DST: Recent contract wins

8. BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT AND COUNTRY RISK

8.1. Economic Performance
  8.1.1. GDP Per Capita
  8.1.2. GDP, Current Prices
  8.1.3. Export of Goods and Services (LCU Billion)
  8.1.4. Import of Goods and Services (LCU Billion)
  8.1.5. Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion)
  8.1.6. Local Currency Unit per USD
  8.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion)
  8.1.8. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% GDP)
  8.1.9. Government cash surplus/deficit as % of GDP (LCU)
  8.1.10. Goods Exports as % of GDP
  8.1.11. Goods Imports as % of GDP
  8.1.12. Service Imports as % of GDP
  8.1.13. Service Exports as % of GDP
  8.1.14. Foreign Direct Investments
  8.1.15. Net Foreign Direct Investments as % of GDP
  8.1.16. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output

9. APPENDIX

9.1. About SDI
9.2. Disclaimer

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: South Korean Defense Expenditure (KRW Trillion), 2014-2023
Figure 2: South Korean Defense Expenditure (US$ billion), 2014-2023
Figure 3: South Korean GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014-2023
Figure 4:South Korean Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (% Share), 2014-2023
Figure 5: South Korean Capital Budget Allocation (KRW Trillion), 2014-2023
Figure 6: South Korean Capital Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), 2014-2023
Figure 7: South Korean Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023
Figure 8: South Korean Homeland Security Expenditure (KRW Trillion), 2014-2023
Figure 9: South Korean Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), 2014-2023
Figure 10: Terrorism Heat Map, 2018
Figure 11: Terrorism Index, 2018
Figure 12: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023
Figure 13: Defense Expenditure of the World’s Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion),2018 and 2023
Figure 14: Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2018
Figure 15: Fighters & Multi Role Aircraft (US$ Million), 2017-2023
Figure 16: Fighters and Multi-role aircraft MRO (US$ Million), 2017-2023
Figure 17: Military-IT Networking (US$ Million), 2017-2023
Figure 18: Infrastructure Construction (US$ Million), 2017-2023
Figure 19: Attack Helicopter (US$ Million), 2017-2023
Figure 20: South Korean Defense Procurements In Terms Of Their Supplier Relationships
Figure 21: South Korean Defense Imports Trend, 2012-2016
Figure 22: South Korean Defense Imports by Country (%), 2012-2016
Figure 23: South Korean Defense Imports by Category (%), 2012-2016
Figure 24: South Korean Defense Exports by Value, 2012-2016
Figure 25: South Korean Defense Exports by Country (US$ million), 2012-2016
Figure 26: South Korean Defense Exports by Category (%), 2012-2016
Figure 27: Industry Dynamics Porter’s Five Forces Analysis
Figure 28: Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) - Revenue Trend Analysis (2012-2016)
Figure 29: Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (2012-2016)
Figure 30: Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) - Net Profit Trend Analysis (2012-2016)
Figure 31: Hanwha Corporation - Revenue Trend Analysis, 2012-2016
Figure 32: Hanwha Corporation - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (2012-2016)
Figure 33: Hanwha Corporation - Net Profit Trend Analysis (2012-2016)
Figure 34: Hyundai Heavy Industries - Revenue Trend Analysis, 2012-2016
Figure 35: Hyundai Heavy Industries - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (2012-2016)
Figure 36: Hyundai Heavy Industries - Net Profit Trend Analysis (2012-2016)
Figure 37: Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering - Revenue Trend Analysis (2012-2016)
Figure 38: Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (2012-2016)
Figure 39: Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering - Net Profit Trend Analysis (2012-2016)
Figure 40: STX Engine - Revenue Trend Analysis (2012-2016)
Figure 41: STX Engine - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (2012-2016)
Figure 42: STX Engine - Net Profit Trend Analysis (2012-2016)
Figure 43: S&T Dynamics - Revenue Trend Analysis (2012-2016)
Figure 44: S&T Dynamics - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (2012-2016)
Figure 45: S&T Dynamics - Net Profit Trend Analysis (2012-2016)
Figure 46: Poongsan Corporation - Revenue Trend Analysis (2012-2016)
Figure 47: Poongsan Corporation - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (2012-2016)
Figure 48: Poongsan Corporation - Net Profit Trend Analysis (2012-2016)
Figure 49: South Korean GDP Per Capita (US$), 2015-2025
Figure 50: South Korean GDP Current Prices, 2015-2025
Figure 51: South Korean Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014
Figure 52: South Korean Import of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014
Figure 53: South Korean Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion), 2005-2013
Figure 54: South Korean LCU per USD, 2015-2024
Figure 55: South Korean Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion), 2005-2012
Figure 56: South Korean Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% GDP), 2005-2012
Figure 57: South Korean Government cash surplus/deficit as % of GDP (LCU), 2005-2011
Figure 58: South Korean Good Exports as (% of GDP), 2005-2014
Figure 59: South Korean Good Imports as (% of GDP), 2005-2014
Figure 60: South Korean Service Imports (% GDP), 2005-2014
Figure 61: South Korean Service Exports (% GDP), 2005-2014
Figure 62: South Korean Net Foreign Direct Investments (BoP, current US$ billion), 2005-2014
Figure 63: South Korean Net Foreign Direct Investments (% GDP), 2005-2014
Figure 64: South Korean Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU billion), 2005-2014

COMPANIES MENTIONED

Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI)
Hanwha Techwin America
Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI)
Daewoo Ship Building & Marine Engineering (DSME)
Huneed Technologies
STX Engine
S&T Dynamics and Poongsan Corporation

The perceived threat of nuclear attack from its neighbor to the North, along with economic growth and a military modernization plan will drive South Korean defense expenditure at a CAGR of 7.3% between 2013 and 2018, according to Strategic Defence Intelligence’s new report: Future of the South Korean Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2018.

South Korean Defense Expenditure, 2014-2018
 South Korean Defense Expenditure, 2014-2018

This report provides in depth analysis of the South Korean defense market, with identification of market drivers augmenting its provision of data on the current industry size and growth expectations to 2018. Together with its investigation of the industry structure and procurement dynamics, with analysis of the competitive landscape of the South Korean defense industry, and its assessment of the business environment, Future of the South Korean Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2018 should be considered the definitive guide to the South Korean defense market, and required reading for those serious about capitalizing on the significant opportunities it holds.

KEY DEFENSE DRIVERS

Nuclear North Korea

The perceived threat from North Korea has forced South Korea to advance its military capabilities to safeguard its national security. North Korea has previously claimed it possesses weapons of mass destruction, nuclear weapons, and chemical weapons. Moreover, in March 2010, North Korea issued a threat of nuclear attack on South Korea whilst a suspected torpedo sank a South Korean warship in May 2010. North Korea launched a rocket in December 2012, and a nuclear test was conducted in February.

Such events have created a volatile political environment between the neighboring countries, as North Korea continues to ignore international pressure and pursue its nuclear program, including the development of inter-continental missile technology. Despite strong US military support and superior military capabilities, South Korea is expected to continue to increase its defense expenditure to prepare its defense forces for a possible attack from North Korea.

New Capabilities

To support the development of domestic technology, South Korea has allocated a significant portion of its 2013 Defense Budget to the acquisition or development of a technologically advanced defense infrastructure. Additionally, South Korea’s budget allocation for capital expenditure – which includes arms procurement – is projected to increase in line with the government’s Defense Reform Plan (DRP) 2020, which outlines extensive cquisition and procuremwent programs to acquire command and control capabilities, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities, and precision-guided strike capabilities across all military services. Under the DRP 2020, South Korea is projected to enhance its military capabilities significantly, replacing its outdated major weapons with more advanced technology.

KEY HOMELAND SECURITY DRIVERS

Cyber Threats

As a result of recent organized cyber-attacks by hackers, which affected the websites of South Korean companies such as Kookmin Bank and Daum Communications Corporation, the South Korean government allocated US$382 million towards the advancement of cyber security in 2013. From 2014 onwards, the South Korean government is expected to make similar investments to safeguard against future cyber-attacks. Although South Korea has not assigned blame on any country or organization, the level of organization of the attacks indicates the involvement of powerful organizations or states. 

North Korean Terror

Whilst South Korea is considered to be at a low risk from acts of terrorism, a significant amount of terrorist activitiy that has occurred in the country can be traced to North Korea. The most common types of terror activity are bombing, shooting, hijacking, and kidnapping. However, while other terrorist groups such as Al-Qaeda have issued terror warnings against the nation, no acts of terrorism have actually taken place.

To prevent future attacks, the South Korean military, law enforcement agency, and other government agencies are working closely with the US Forces Korea (USFK), the military base in South Korea, on anti-terrorism and counter terrorism programs. 

The material was prepared in October, 2013.

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: South Korean Army Strength
Table 2: South Korean Navy Strength
Table 3: South Korean Air Force Strength
Table 4: South Korean Ongoing Procurement Programs
Table 5: South Korean Future Procurement Programs
Table 6: Top South Korean Defense Procurement Programs by Value (US$ Million) 2018-2023
Table 7: South Korean Defense Expenditure (KRW Trillion & US$ Billion), 2014-2023
Table 8: South Korean GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014-2023
Table 9: South Korean Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023
Table 10: South Korean Defense Capital Expenditure (KRW Trillion & US$ Billion), 2014-2023
Table 11: South Korean Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023
Table 12: South Korean Homeland Security Expenditure (KRW Trillion & US$ Billion), 2014-2023
Table 13: Terrorism Index, 2018
Table 14: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023
Table 15: Top 10 South Korea Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million) - 2018-2023
Table 16: Offset Regulations in South Korea
Table 17: South Korean Budget Formation Timetable:
Table 18: Top 10 Defense Suppliers in South Korean Defense Industry - By Value (US$ Million) 2018-2023
Table 19: Competitive Landscape of the South Korean Defense Industry
Table 20: Korean Aerospace Industries - Major Products & Services
Table 21: Korean Aerospace Industries - Alliances
Table 22: Korean Aerospace Industries - Recent Contract Wins
Table 23: Hanwha Techwin - Major Products
Table 24: Hanwha Techwin - Alliances
Table 25: Hanwha Techwin - Recent Contract Wins
Table 26: Hanwha Corporation - Major Products
Table 27: Hanwha Corporation - Alliances
Table 28: Hanwha Corporation - Recent Contract Wins
Table 29: Hyundai Heavy Industries - Major Products
Table 30: Hyundai Heavy Industries - Alliances
Table 31: Hyundai Heavy Industries - Recent Contract Wins
Table 32: Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering - Major Products
Table 33: Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering - Alliances
Table 34: Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering - Recent Contract Wins
Table 35: Huneed Technologies - Products & Services
Table 36: Huneed Technologies - Alliances
Table 37: Huneed Technologies - Recent Contract Wins
Table 38: STX Engine - Products & Services
Table 39: STX Engine - Alliances
Table 40: STX Engine - Recent Contract Wins
Table 41: S&T Dynamics - Products
Table 42: S&T Dynamics - Recent Contract Wins
Table 43: Poongsan Corporation - Products
Table 44: Poongsan Corporation - Alliances
Table 45: Poongsan Corporation - Recent Contract Wins
Table 46: Samsung Thales - Products & Services
Table 47: Samsung Thales - Alliances
Table 48: Samsung Thales - Recent Contract Wins
Table 49: LIG NEX1 - Products
Table 50: LIG NEX1 - Alliances
Table 51: LIG NEX1 - Recent Contract Wins
Table 52: Doosan DST - Products & Services
Table 53: Doosan DST - Recent Contract Wins

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