United States Metals Report Q4 2014

Date: September 10, 2014
Pages: 73
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The US metals sector will see modest growth over the next several years. Positive tailwinds from accelerating economic expansion will drive metal production and consumption. Still, total production and consumption levels will remain below pre-crisis levels through 2018.

Our expectation for accelerating real GDP growth in the coming quarters underpins our view that the metal sector will see modest growth over a multi-year period. We forecast real GDP growth of 2.6% in 2015, up from 2.1% in 2014. Moreover, we forecast average annual growth of 2.4% in 2016-2018. Gains in nonresidential construction, automotive production, and oil and gas investment, should lead to steady, albeit low, demand growth for refined metal products. However, elevated inventories, weak foreign demand, and increased competition from cheap imports will limit production growth.
BMI Industry View
Metals SWOT
Industry Forecast
Steel: Modest Outlook Ahead
Recent Capacity Utilisation Uptick Bodes Well For Industry
Steel-Intensive Sectors To Support Construction Growth
Cheap Imports Remain Risk
  Table: Steel Production & Consumption (United States 2010-2018)
Aluminium: Consumption Outlook Stronger Than Production
Stronger Economic Growth & Auto Production To Drive Demand
Production Growth To Lag Consumption Fundamentals
  Table: US - Aluminium Forecast (2010-2018)
Copper: Muted Recovery
Housing & Manufacturing To Support Demand
Production To Fall Short Of Demand Despite Upward Revision
  Table: US Copper Forecasts (2010-2018)
Zinc: Domestic Production To Remain Well Below Demand
Steel Production To Underpin Zinc Demand
Domestic Shortfalls Ahead
  Table: US - Refined Zinc Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes)
Regulatory Development
Tax Regime
Minimal Corruption
  Table: US Political Overview
Commodities Forecast
Commodity Strategy
Ferrous Metals:
Iron Ore: Bounce Won't Last, Weakness In 2015
Steel: Long Road To Price Recovery
Non-Ferrous Metals:
Aluminium: Elevated Prices In Coming Weeks
Copper: Strength To Turn To Weakness By Q414
Lead: Price Bounce Underway
Nickel: Prices To Cool In Coming Months
Tin: Market Tightness To Drive Prices Higher
Zinc: Prices To Moderate By Q414
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Commodities Forecast
  Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
Short-Term Outlook
Core View
Surplus Set To Slim
Production: Reining In Growth
Consumption: Deceleration Ahead
No Respite From Chinese Exports Over Coming Months
Arbitrage Set To Grow Between East And West
Risks To Price Outlook
  Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
  Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, USD/tonne (average)
Competitive Landscape
  Table: US - Financial Data For Key Listed Metals Firms, FY 2013
Steel Sector To Benefit From Accelerating Economic Growth
Little New Investment In Refining Capacity
Company Profile
Company Strategy
Latest Results
  Table: Nucor - Supply Chain Analysis
  Table: Nucor - Key Financial Data
Company Strategy
Latest Results
  Table: Alcoa - Supply Chain Analysis
Company Details
Company Overview
Company Strategy
Latest Financial Results
Company Details
Financial Data
  Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
US Steel
Company Overview
Company Strategy
Latest Results
  Table: US Steel - Supply Chain Analysis
  Table: Financial Data
Address Details
Cross Checks
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