United States Metals Report Q3 2014

Date: June 4, 2014
Pages: 66
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We maintain a modest though positive outlook for the US metals sector over our five-year forecast period. Our constructive US macroeconomic outlook underpins our view that metal production and consumption should see modest growth. However, we anticipate total production and consumption levels will remain below pre-crisis levels through 2018. For 2014, we expect the country's improving economic outlook, particularly in the construction, oil & gas, and automotive sectors, will drive the sector.

Our forecast for average annual real GDP growth of 2.5% from 2014 to 2018 underpins our view that the metal sector will see modest growth over a multi-year period. Gains in non-residential construction, automotive production, and oil and gas investment, should lead to steady, albeit low, demand growth for refined metal products. However, elevated inventories, weak foreign demand, and increased competition from cheap imports will limit production growth.
BMI Industry View
Metals SWOT
Industry Forecast
Steel: Modest Outlook Ahead
Capacity Utilisation Indicates Continued, Though Modest, Recovery
Steel-Intensive Sectors To Boost Construction
Cheap Imports Remain Risk
  Table: Steel Production & Consumption (000 tonnes, Unless Stated Otherwise) (United States 2010-2018)
Aluminium: Production And Consumption Trends To Diverge
Consumption To Gain From Stronger Economic Growth
Production To See Stagnant Growth
  Table: US - Aluminium Consumption, Production & Balance (kt)
Copper: Muted Recovery
Housing & Manufacturing Bolster Demand
Production To Consumption Growth
  Table: US - Refined Copper Production & Consumption (kt)
Zinc: Production And Consumption Growth Subdued
Steel Production To Drive Zinc Consumption
Total Production To Lag Consumption
  Table: US - Refined Zinc Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes)
Regulatory Development
Tax Regime
Minimal Corruption
  Table: US Political Overview
Commodities Forecast
Steel Price Forecast
  Table: BMI Steel Forecast
Short-Term Outlook
Core View
Global Steel Glut To Persist
Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term
Consumption: Growth Decelerating
Excessive Chinese Exports
Growing Arbitrage Between East & West
Risks To Price Outlook
  Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
  Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave)
Monthly Metals Update
Iron Ore: Chinese Stimulus Not A Game Changer
Steel: Gradual Rationalisation Insufficient To Boost Prices
Aluminium: Recent Rally Unlikely To Persist Into H214
Copper: Bearish Forecast Appears Well Placed
Lead: Picking Up Autos Sector Tailwinds
Nickel: Recent Rise To Fall Back In H214
Zinc: Potential Test Of Resistance In Coming Weeks
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
  Table: US - Financial Data For Key Listed Metals Firms, FY 2013
Steel Sector To Benefit From Improved Economic Fundamentals
Little Investment Expected Into Base Metals Capacity
Company Profile
Company Strategy
Latest Financial Results
  Table: Nucor - Key Financial Data
Recent Financial Data
  Table: Alcoa - Key Financial Data
Company Overview
Company Strategy
Latest Financial Results
Company Details
Financial Data
  Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
Cross Checks
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