United States Metals Report Q2 2014

Date: March 5, 2014
Pages: 65
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download
ID: UBA479312C9EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We maintain a modest outlook on the US metals sector throughout 2018. Our forecast for an improving US macroeconomic outlook underpins our view that metal production and consumption should see growth, though long-term declines in metal intensity lead us to believe any growth will be minimal. in the short term, we expect that refiners and metal producers will continue bringing production back online as the country's economic outlook improves, particularly in the construction, oil & gas, and automotive sectors. However, production and consumption will probably remain below pre-crisis levels for some time.

We forecast average yearly real GDP growth of 2.5% from 2014 to 2018, underpinning our view that the metal sector will see slow but steady growth over the period. Gains non-residential construction, automotive production, and oil and gas investment, should lead to steady, albeit low, demand growth for refined metal products. However, elevated inventories, weak foreign demand, and increased competition from cheap imports will cap production increases.
BMI Industry View
Metals SWOT
Industry Forecast
Steel: Positive Trends To Reverse By Mid-Decade
Capacity Utilisation Rates Signal Recovery
Consumption To Be Boosted By Construction And Automotive Sectors
  Table: US - Steel Production, Consumption And Balance
Aluminium: Production And Consumption Trends To Diverge
Consumption To Be Bolstered By Rising Economic Fortunes
Production Gains Minimal In Years Ahead
  Table: US - Aluminium Consumption, Production And Balance (kt)
Copper: Muted Recovery
Housing Recovery Underpins Consumption
Production To See Slight Gains On Back Of Economic Recovery
  Table: US - Refined Copper Production And Consumption (kt)
Zinc: Production And Consumption Growth Subdued
Consumption Dependent On Steel Industry
Production Growth To Lag Consumption
  Table: US - Refined Zinc Production And Consumption ('000 tonnes)
Regulatory Development
Tax Regime
Minimal Corruption
  Table: US Political Overview
Commodities Forecast
Steel Price Forecast
  Table: BMI Steel Forecast
Short-Term Outlook
Core View
Global Steel Glut To Persist
Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term
Consumption: Growth Decelerating
Excessive Chinese Exports
Growing Arbitrage Between East & West
Risks To Price Outlook
  Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
  Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave)
Commodity Strategy
Aluminium: Continued Short-Term Weakness
Copper: Recent Strength Doesn't Change Our View
Nickel: Recent Strength To Subside
Zinc: Price Momentum To Continue
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
  Table: US - Financial Data For Key Listed Metals Firms, FY 2013
Steel Sector To See Tailwinds
Base Metals Capacity To See Little Investment
Company Profile
Company Strategy
Recent Financial Results
  Table: Nucor - Key Financial Data
Recent Financial Data
  Table: Alcoa - Key Financial Data
Company Strategy
Latest Financial Results
Company Details
Financial Data
  Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
Cross Checks
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