United States Metals Report Q1 2015

Date: November 19, 2014
Pages: 69
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download
ID: UD587224A5CEN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The US metals sector will see modest growth over the next several years. Accelerating economic expansion will encourage metal production and consumption, but total production and consumption levels will remain below pre-crisis levels through 2018.

Accelerating real GDP growth in the coming quarters will lead to modest growth in the metals sector. We now forecast real GDP growth of 2.7% in 2015, up from our previous forecast of 2.6%, and estimate growth of 2.3% in 2014, up from our earlier estimate of 2.1%. Gains in non-residential construction, automotive production, and oil and gas investment, should lead to steady, albeit low, demand growth for refined metal products. Nevertheless, we expect US economic expansion to remain below historical trends in the coming years. Combined with currently elevated inventories, weak foreign demand, and increased competition from cheap imports, the metals sector will not return to pre-financial crisis levels of consumption and production.
BMI Industry View
Metals SWOT
Industry Forecast
Steel: Imports To Constrain Industry Growth
Several Top Firms To Dominate
Capacity Utilisation To See Subdued Growth
Steel-Intensive Sectors To Support Demand
Cheap Imports To Temper Industry Growth
  Table: Steel Production & Consumption (United States 2010-2018)
Aluminium: Automotive Sector To Support Demand
Auto Production To Be Greatest Driver Of Demand
Minimal Production Growth
  Table: US - Aluminium Forecast (2010-2018)
Copper: Modest Growth, But No Return To Previous Highs
Housing Recovery & Manufacturing Growth To Support Demand
Production To Fall Short Of Demand
  Table: US Copper Forecasts (2010-2018)
Zinc: US To Remain Net Importer
Majority Of Zinc Demand Tied To Steel
Reliance On Imports To Persist On Domestic Shortfalls
  Table: US Zinc Forecasts (2010-2018)
  Table: US - Refined Zinc Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes)
Regulatory Development
Tax Regime
Minimal Corruption
  Table: US Political Overview
Commodities Forecast
Commodity Strategy
Ferrous Metals
Non-Ferrous Metals:
Aluminium: Price Headwinds To Persist Despite Market Tightness
Copper: Bounce To Prove Temporary
Nickel: Multiple Price Headwinds To Persist
Zinc: No Sustained Gains
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
Steel: Prices To Head Higher From 2016
  Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months)
Long-Term Outlook
Production: Chinese Rationalisation Measures To Bite
Consumption: Slowing Demand Growth On The Horizon
Burgeoning Chinese Exports Will Not Last
Eurozone Growth Downgrade Highlights Long Road To Recovery
Risks To Price Forecast
  Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
  Table: US - Financial Data For Key Listed Metals Firms, FY 2013
Accelerating Economic Growth To Boost Steelmakers
Refining Capacity To Hold Steady
Company Profile
Company Strategy
Latest Results
  Table: Nucor - Supply Chain Analysis
  Table: Nucor - Key Financial Data
US Steel
Company Overview
Company Strategy
Latest Results
  Table: US Steel - Supply Chain Analysis
  Table: Financial Data
Address Details
Company Overview
Company Strategy
Latest Financial Results
Company Details
Financial Data
  Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
Company Strategy
Latest Results
  Table: Alcoa - Supply Chain Analysis
Company Details
Cross Checks
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