Ukraine Metals Report Q4 2014

Date: September 24, 2014
Pages: 52
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download
ID: U93E94F80D9EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: After a sharp downturn in production and consumption in the local steel industry in 2014, Ukraine's metals sector will see modest growth over the forecast period, with a handful of new projects to increase production growth. Production will not return to pre-crisis highs, however, due to global overcapacity and steel prices not making substantive gains over 2013. There are no major expansions on the cards, and no major players in either the aluminium or steel industries have announced substantial investment plans.

Figures recorded at the start of 2014 have been disappointing. Ukrainian companies manufactured 477,000mt of steel pipes during January-April 2014, according to figures released by Ukraine's cabinet of ministers. The steel pipe production was down 16.1% year-on-year (y-o-y), the figures revealed. The country's steel pipe production was recorded as 140,600mt in April 2014, up 3.6% month-on-month (m-om), according to the official figures. More broadly speaking, steel output in Ukraine decreased by more than 7% in H114 and exports to Russia have been impacted amid conflicts between the two countries, according to data released by the International Steel Statistics Bureau. Shipments to Russia declined by 38% in January-April 2014. Steelmaking in the country is focused on the conflict-torn regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, where several mills, factories and mine have been forced to stop operations. Meanwhile, steel consumption in the country declined by 700,000 tonnes to 2.3mn tonnes in January-May 2014, compared to sales of 3mn tonnes in January-May 2013. Sales to the CIS fell 36% y-o-y to 1.34mn tonnes, with sales to Russia declining 30% y-o-y to 1mn tonnes. The country's total steel exports fell 4% y-o-y to 9.55mn tonnes during the reported period.
BMI Industry View
Metals SWOT
Industry Forecast
Steel: Growth Story On Hold
Growth To Pick Up Thanks To Construction
  Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Ukraine 2010-2018)
  Table: Ukraine - Steel Industry Historical Data, 2003-2012 ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
Commodities Forecast
Commodity Strategy
Ferrous Metals:
Iron Ore: Price Slump Overdone, Stabilisation In Sight
Steel: Price Forecast Revised Up
Non-Ferrous Metals:
Aluminium: Recent Break Signals Multi-Month Strength
Copper: Subdued Prices Into Q314
Lead: Prices To Strengthen As Deficit Deepens
Nickel: H214 Rally Unlikely
Tin: More Resilient Than Other Metals
Zinc: Sustained Break Unlikely
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Commodities Forecast
  Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
Short-Term Outlook
Core View
Surplus Set To Slim
Production: Reining In Growth
Consumption: Deceleration Ahead
No Respite From Chinese Exports Over Coming Months
Arbitrage Set To Grow Between East And West
Risks To Price Outlook
  Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
  Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, USD/tonne (average)
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Largest European Listed Metals Producers
Company Profile
Latest Results
  Table: Rusal - Supply Chain Analysis
  Table: RUSAL - Key Financial Data
Company Overview
Company Strategy
Latest Financial Results
Company Details
Financial Data
  Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
Cross Checks
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Ukraine Metals Report Q1 2015 US$ 1,295.00 Dec, 2014 · 50 pages
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Ukraine Metals Report Q2 2014 US$ 1,295.00 Mar, 2014 · 50 pages

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