Ukraine Metals Report Q1 2015

Date: December 10, 2014
Pages: 50
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download
ID: U8A784D7F11EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

After back-to-back years of contraction in both production and consumption in the metals sector in the Ukraine between 2012 and 2013, the sector turned a corner last year. Despite being rocked by the ongoing conflict with Russia and the subsequent political and economic uncertainty BMI estimates that the sector bounced back to post a 3.5% y-o-y gain in output and a 3.1% y-o-y increase in use. Going forward, Ukraine's metals sector will see modest growth over our forecast period to the end of 2018, with a handful of new projects to increase production growth. Production will not return to pre-crisis highs, however, due to global overcapacity and steel prices not making substantive gains over 2013 - they have, however, since improved. There are no major expansions on the cards, and no major players in either the aluminium or steel industries have announced substantial investment plans.

Figures recorded during the first eight months of 2014 have certainly been supportive of this view. Metals trader Ukrainian Mining and Metallurgical Company has published data that shows that Ukrainian exports of steel products grew by 2.3% y-o-y to 17.9mn tonnes in January-August 2014 (latest available data). Ukraine's exports of pig iron totalled 1.6mn tonnes in the reported period, up by 22% y-o-y during the same time period. The country's imports of steel products increased by 39.5% y-o-y to 883,000 tonnes in January- August 2014, while its import revenues generated by steel products fell by 44.8% y-o-y to USD877mn.
BMI Industry View
Metals SWOT
Industry Forecast
Steel: Growth Story On Hold
Growth To Pick Up Thanks To Construction
  Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Ukraine 2010-2018)
  Table: Ukraine - Steel Industry Historical Data, 2004-2013 ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
Commodities Forecast
Monthly Metals Strategy
Ferrous Metals
Non-Ferrous Metals
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
Steel: Prices To Head Higher From 2016
  Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months)
Long-Term Outlook
Production: Chinese Rationalisation Measures To Bite
Consumption: Slowing Demand Growth On The Horizon
Burgeoning Chinese Exports Will Not Last
Eurozone Growth Downgrade Highlights Long Road To Recovery
Risks To Price Forecast
  Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Largest European Listed Metals Producers
Company Profile
Latest Results
  Table: Rusal - Supply Chain Analysis
  Table: RUSAL - Key Financial Data
Company Overview
Company Strategy
Latest Financial Results
Company Details
Financial Data
  Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
Cross Checks
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