Spain Metals Report Q4 2014

Date: October 1, 2014
Pages: 41
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download
ID: SB456C5D307EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The outlook for Spain's metals sector is steadily improving once more. After three years of consecutive contraction in both domestic steel consumption and production, BMI is forecasting a turnaround with steel production returning to growth in 2014 and steel consumption in 2015 (after a contraction of 0.5% in 2013). Looking further ahead, we expect both steel consumption and production growth to accelerate year-on-year (y-o-y) from 2016 through to the end of our forecast period in 2018, with production levels to hit 14,291mnt (mm tonnes) and consumption to reach 11,868mnt by that date.

Despite the forecasted gains, we believe economic growth in Spain will prove moribund and the local steel market will fail to return to pre-recession levels of consumption or production within our forecast period. In 2013 domestic crude steel consumption is estimated to have fallen 1.1% y-o-y to 11.38mnt, while crude steel production is estimated to have fallen 0.5% to 13.57mnt. Given current trends in terms of both output and the state of domestic and external markets, the industry is unlikely to return to pre-2011 levels of output anytime soon - certainly not before the end of our forecast period. In order to compensate for poor domestic demand, recovery in the Spanish steel industry will largely depend on growth in exports of manufactured goods. Germany has been the chief target for Spanish steel exports, but the decline in the performance of the German manufacturing sector from mid-2011 is having a deleterious effect on export performance.
BMI Industry View
Metals SWOT
Industry Forecast
Commodity Strategy
Ferrous Metals:
Iron Ore: Price Slump Overdone, Stabilisation In Sight
Steel: Price Forecast Revised Up
Non-Ferrous Metals:
Aluminium: Recent Break Signals Multi-Month Strength
Copper: Subdued Prices Into Q314
Lead: Prices To Strengthen As Deficit Deepens
Nickel: H214 Rally Unlikely
Tin: More Resilient Than Other Metals
Zinc: Sustained Break Unlikely
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Commodities Forecast
  Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
Short-Term Outlook
Core View
Surplus Set To Slim
Production: Reining In Growth
Consumption: Deceleration Ahead
No Respite From Chinese Exports Over Coming Months
Arbitrage Set To Grow Between East And West
Risks To Price Outlook
  Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
  Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, USD/tonne (average)
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Largest European Listed Metal Producers
Company Profile
Company Overview
Company Strategy
Latest Financial Results
Company Details
Financial Data
  Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
Cross Checks
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Spain Metals Report Q1 2015 US$ 1,295.00 Dec, 2014 · 38 pages
Spain Metals Report Q2 2014 US$ 1,295.00 Mar, 2014 · 37 pages
Spain Metals Report Q3 2014 US$ 1,295.00 Jun, 2014 · 40 pages
Metals & Mining in Spain US$ 350.00 Jan, 2016 · 45 pages

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