Spain Metals Report Q2 2014

Date: March 19, 2014
Pages: 37
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

The outlook for Spain's metals sector is bleak, with few opportunities for growth in either production or consumption until beyond the end of our newly-extended forecast period to 2018. The effects of the eurozone crisis and domestic recession on the steel industry means the sector will see a protracted downturn that could permanently affect its structure. Indeed, we believe economic growth in Spain will prove moribund and the local steel market will fail to return to pre-recession levels of consumption. In 2013 domestic crude steel consumption is estimated to have fallen 1.1% y-o-y to 11.38mnt (mn tonnes). In order to compensate for poor domestic demand, recovery in the Spanish steel industry will largely depend on growth in exports of manufactured goods. Germany has been the chief target for Spanish steel exports, but the decline in the performance of the German manufacturing sector from mid-2011 is having a deleterious effect on export performance. in early August 2013 ArcelorMittal announced its intension to restart coke oven batteries 7 and 8 in Avil├ęs, northern Spain by mid-November, following their hot shutdown in December 2011, due to the fall in steel demand in Spain and Europe. This will help provide steel to the local automotive industry. This indicated growing optimism that the export-oriented Spanish automotive industry was set for growth in 2013. Acerinox is also predicting a recovery in the global stainless steel market in 2013, bolstered by the automotive industry. However, the Spanish flat steel market is unlikely to recover its full momentum over the medium-term with packaging and consumer durables hit by high unemployment. At the same time, the long steel market has been hit by the collapse in residential construction.
BMI Industry View
Metals SWOT
Industry Forecast
Monthly Metals Update
Steel: Locked In Secular Downtrend
Aluminium: US$1,800/tonne To Provide Strong Support
Copper: Bearish View In Place Despite Some Recovery
Nickel: Despite Recent Gains, Downside Risks Dominate
Zinc: Channelling Support
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI forecasts
  Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
Steel Price Forecast
  Table: BMI Steel Forecast
Short-Term Outlook
Core View
Global Steel Glut To Persist
Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term
Consumption: Growth Decelerating
Excessive Chinese Exports
Growing Arbitrage Between East & West
Risks To Price Outlook
  Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
  Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave)
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Largest European Listed Metal Producers
Company Profile
Company Strategy
Latest Financial Results
Company Details
Financial Data
  Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
Cross Checks
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