Spain Metals Report Q1 2015

Date: December 17, 2014
Pages: 38
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The outlook for Spain's metals sector is steadily improving once more, with production increases paving the way for a lagging uptick in production too. After a contraction in both domestic steel consumption and production of three and four years, respectively, from 2011 onwards, BMI estimates a more positive environment of growth on both fronts going forward. Output in Spain returned to growth in 2013 with a 4.49% y-o-y increase in activity to 14,252,000 tonnes, followed by an estimated increase of 1.2% y-o-y in 2014 to 14,423,000 tonnes with growth continuing to accelerate through to the end of our forecast period in 2018. Steel consumption in Spain, meanwhile, is forecasted to return to growth a year later in 2015. We estimate steel consumption to have contracted by 0.5 % y-o-y to 11,280,000 tonnes in 2014, the final year of the downward trend. Looking ahead in 2015 we forecast consumption to return to growth and rise by 1.1% y-o-y to14,217,000 tonnes - an acceleration we expect to continue through to the end of our forecast period in 2018, with average growth of 1.1% y-o-y.

The turnaround in fortunes of the local steel market is supported by the slowly improving macroeconomic backdrop in Spain. To be sure, after seeing the economic contract by 1.3% in 2013, BMI estimates real GDP growth to return to 1.3% in 2014, before accelerating by 1.3% in 2015. That said, in the absence of rapid economic growth we believe that the local steel market will fail to return to pre-recession levels of consumption or production within our forecast period. Given current trends in terms of both output and the state of domestic and external markets, the industry is unlikely to return to pre-2011 levels of output anytime soon either - certainly not before the end of our forecast period in 2018. In order to compensate for poor domestic demand, recovery in the Spanish steel industry will largely depend on growth in exports of manufactured goods. Germany has been the chief target for Spanish steel exports, but the decline in the performance of the German manufacturing sector from mid-2011 is having a deleterious effect on export performance.
BMI Industry View
Metals SWOT
Industry Forecast
Monthly Metals Strategy
Ferrous Metals
Non-Ferrous Metals
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
Steel: Prices To Head Higher From 2016
  Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months)
Long-Term Outlook
Production: Chinese Rationalisation Measures To Bite
Consumption: Slowing Demand Growth On The Horizon
Burgeoning Chinese Exports Will Not Last
Eurozone Growth Downgrade Highlights Long Road To Recovery
Risks To Price Forecast
  Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Largest European Listed Metal Producers
Company Profile
Company Overview
Company Strategy
Latest Financial Results
Company Details
Financial Data
  Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
Cross Checks
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