South Africa Metals Report Q2 2014

Date: February 12, 2014
Pages: 56
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download
ID: SF405AE3942EN

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BMI View: The outlook for South Africa's metals industry is increasingly troubled as persistently low output prices, rising energy costs and further intense wage negotiations with unions are set to plague the sector. Metals consumption growth will perform better than production growth, due to solid demand growth from the autos sector. We expect this demand growth to be met in large part by increased imports, as investment in South African production facilities will be held back by the glut of metals, particularly steel, on the world market.

In terms of the domestic market, metals consumption will track broader economic growth in South Africa, which we anticipate to be slow but steady with a modest recovery expected over coming years. We see autos production growth as a key driver of metals consumption. We forecast autos production to grow by an annual average of 2.9% over 2014-2018, while construction industry value will grow by 3.9% y-o-y over the same period.
BMI Industry View
Metals SWOT
Industry Forecast
Steel: Little Incentive To Invest
  Table: South Africa - Major Steel Plants
  Table: South Africa - Steel Consumption & Production ('000 tonnes)
  Table: South Africa - Steel Production & Trade Historical Data ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
Aluminium: Diminishing As An Export Hub
  Table: South Africa - Primary Aluminium Production, Consumption & Balance ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
Nickel: Declining Platinum Output To Constrain Nickel
  Table: South Africa - Refined Nickel Production, Consumption & Balance ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
Regulatory Development
Tax Regime
  Table: South Africa - Political Overview
Commodities Forecast
Commodity Strategy
Steel: Locked In Secular Downtrend
Aluminium: US$1,800/tonne To Provide Strong Support
Copper: Bearish View In Place Despite Some Recovery
Nickel: Despite Recent Gains, Downside Risks Dominate
Zinc: Channelling Support
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI forecasts
  Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
Commodities Forecast
  Table: BMI Steel Forecast
  Table: Steel Data And Forecasts, 2009-2017
Competitive Landscape
  Table: South Africa - Major Steel Production Facilities
  Table: South Africa - Select Listed Metals Producers
Company Profile
Company Strategy
Latest Financial Results
Company Details
Financial Data
  Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
Cross Checks
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