Russia Metals Report Q4 2014

Date: October 8, 2014
Pages: 64
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download
ID: R7E0130B898EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The Russian metals sector will post weak growth over the remainder of 2014 as cuts continue in the aluminium sector and weak prices plague the steel sector. In 2015 and beyond, growth will pick up as we see higher prices for aluminium and global demand growth for steel improves. Still, we expect companies' investment plans to focus on improving plant efficiency and reducing costs rather than building new plants or expanding production capacity. Despite only modest growth, Russia will remain one of the world's largest producers of base and industrial metals including nickel, steel and aluminium.

Russia's metals output is highly consolidated within each metal segment, as restrictive foreign ownership rights and established oligopolies prevent foreign competition. Within nickel production, Norilsk Nickel is the primary producer and also a major mining company. Its vertical integration across mining and refining capacity will allow it to remain the largest nickel producer in Russia for the foreseeable future. Similarly, steel and aluminium production are consolidated among just a few producers including RUSAL and Severstal. We do not expect the metals sector to diversify over our forecast period to 2018.
BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Steel: Growth To Pick Up In 2015
High Relative Capacity Utilisation Rates
  Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Russia 2010-2018)
  Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Russia 2005-2012)
Aluminium: In The Midst Of Production Cuts
  Table: Aluminium Production & Consumption (Russia 2010-2018)
Nickel: Stagnant Outlook
  Table: Refined Nickel Production & Consumption (Russia 2010-2018)
Regulatory Development
Key Details
Political Risk Update
  Table: Political Overview
Commodities Forecast
Commodity Strategy
Ferrous Metals:
Steel: Prices To Remain Subdued
Non-Ferrous Metals:
Aluminium: Price Strength To Continue In Q314
Copper: Further Decline By Year's End
Lead: Constructive Price Outlook
Nickel: Moderation To Continue
Tin: Upside Ahead
Zinc: Consolidation Before Multi-Year Gains
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Commodities Forecast
  Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
Short-Term Outlook
Core View
Surplus Set To Slim
Production: Reining In Growth
Consumption: Deceleration Ahead
No Respite From Chinese Exports Over Coming Months
Arbitrage Set To Grow Between East And West
Risks To Price Outlook
  Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
  Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, USD/tonne (average)
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Russia - Largest Listed Metals Producers - Financial Data
Company Profile
  Table: Severstal - Key Financial Data
Norilsk Nickel
Company Overview
Company Strategy
  Table: Norilsk Nickel - Key Financial Data
Latest Results
  Table: Rusal - Supply Chain Analysis
  Table: RUSAL - Key Financial Data
Cross Checks
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