Russia Metals Report Q1 2015

Date: December 24, 2014
Pages: 62
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The Russian metals sector will post weak growth over the remainder of 2014 as the aluminium sector returns to modest growth after extensive cuts and weak prices plague the steel sector. Beyond 2015, growth will pick up as we see higher prices for aluminium and global demand growth for steel improves. Still, we expect companies' investment plans to focus on improving plant efficiency and reducing costs rather than building new plants or expanding production capacity. Despite only modest growth, Russia will remain one of the world's largest producers of base and industrial metals including nickel, steel and aluminium.

Oligopolies To Remain In Place

Russia's metals output is highly consolidated within each metal segment, as restrictive foreign ownership rights and established oligopolies prevent foreign competition. Within nickel production, Norilsk Nickel is the primary producer and also a major mining company. Its vertical integration across mining and refining capacity will allow it to remain the largest nickel producer in Russia for the foreseeable future. Similarly, steel and aluminium production are consolidated among just a few producers including RUSAL and Severstal. We do not expect the metals sector to diversify over our forecast period to 2018.
BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Steel: Production Spurt In 2015
High Relative Capacity Utilisation Rates
  Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Russia 2010-2018)
  Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Russia 2005-2013)
Aluminium: Return To Growth After Deep Cuts
  Table: Aluminium Production & Consumption (Russia 2010-2018)
Nickel: Sluggish Growth
  Table: Refined Nickel Production & Consumption (Russia 2010-2018)
Regulatory Development
Key Details
  Table: Political Overview
Commodities Forecast
  Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months)
Long-Term Outlook
Production Growth Set For Slowdown
Consumption Growth To Disappoint
Downside Risks To Price Outlook
  Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
Commodity Strategy
Ferrous Metals
Non-Ferrous Metals
Aluminium: Sustained Break Unlikely
Copper: Prices To Decline Further By 2015
Nickel: Increase From Current Lows, But No Return To H114 Highs
Zinc: Tighter Supplies To Be Offset By Subdued Demand
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Russia - Largest Listed Metals Producers - Financial Data
Company Profile
  Table: Severstal - Key Financial Data
Norilsk Nickel
Company Overview
Company Strategy
  Table: Norilsk Nickel - Supply Chain Analysis
  Table: Norilsk Nickel - Key Financial Data
Global Company Strategy - RUSAL - Q1 2015
Latest Results
  Table: Rusal - Supply Chain Analysis
  Table: RUSAL - Key Financial Data
Cross Checks
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