Romania Metals Report Q4 2014

Date: September 3, 2014
Pages: 50
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download
ID: R9D0424135BEN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Romania's metals sector will continue to see modest growth over the coming years as it slowly recovers from the global downturn. This is primarily the case for steel, the largest sub-component of Romania's metals sector. With modest growth in both autos production and the country's construction sector, we expect modest growth in steel output over the next five years. In addition, with our expectation for steel prices to head broadly lower over the coming years, we see few sources of encouragement for the sector. Therefore, whilst we forecast modest growth in output, it will remain far off 2007 highs.

Romanian crude steel output demonstrated modest growth in 2013 of 1.0%, however, production is still more than a third less than pre-2008 levels. We note that output was damaged by Mechel's withdrawal from its Romanian assets. BMI forecasts an acceleration in growth in 2014 at 2.0% year-on-year (y-oy), however, to reach 3.39mnt of crude steel. We expect growth to accelerate further by 2.4% in 2015, to reach 3.47mnt.
BMI Industry View
Metals SWOT
Industry Forecast
Steel: Little Growth Ahead
  Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Romania 2010-2018)
  Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Romania 2005-2012)
Regulatory Development
Commodities Forecast
Commodity Strategy
Ferrous Metals:
Iron Ore: Price Slump Overdone, Stabilisation In Sight
Steel: Price Forecast Revised Up
Non-Ferrous Metals:
Aluminium: Recent Break Signals Multi-Month Strength
Copper: Subdued Prices Into Q314
Lead: Prices To Strengthen As Deficit Deepens
Nickel: H214 Rally Unlikely
Tin: More Resilient Than Other Metals
Zinc: Sustained Break Unlikely
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Commodities Forecast
  Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
Short-Term Outlook
Core View
Surplus Set To Slim
Production: Reining In Growth
Consumption: Deceleration Ahead
No Respite From Chinese Exports Over Coming Months
Arbitrage Set To Grow Between East And West
Risks To Price Outlook
  Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
  Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, USD/tonne (average)
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Europe - Major Listed Metal Producers
Company Profile
  Table: Mechel - Financial Data
Company Overview
Company Strategy
Latest Financial Results
Company Details
Financial Data
  Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
Cross Checks
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