Romania Metals Report Q1 2015

Date: November 26, 2014
Pages: 50
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Romania's metals sector will continue to see modest growth over the coming years as it slowly recovers from the global downturn. This is primarily the case for steel, the largest sub-component of Romania's metals sector. With modest growth in both autos production and the country's construction sector, we expect modest growth in steel output over the next five years. In addition, with our expectation for steel prices to head broadly lower over the coming years, we see few sources of encouragement for the sector. Therefore, whilst we forecast modest growth in output, it will remain far off 2007 highs.

Romanian crude steel output demonstrated modest growth in 2013 of 1.0%, however, production is still more than a third less than pre-2008 levels. We note that output was damaged by Mechel's withdrawal from its Romanian assets. BMI forecasts an acceleration in growth in 2014 at 2.0% year-on-year (y-oy), however, to reach 3.39mnt of crude steel. We expect growth to accelerate further by 2.4% in 2015, to reach 3.47mnt. Supporting this forecast, ArcelorMittal Galati Romania has announced that it expects to increase its steel production by 15% to more than 2mn tonnes (mnt) in 2015 from 1.6 mnt, after major technical upgrades of its production process. The group has invested EUR10mn for its unit in Galati, according to CEO of Business Division Galati-Skopje Bruno Ribo. 'This forecast is possible only thanks to the measures taken by the authorities in the past months to support restoring the competitiveness of the Romanian business environment, especially aimed to re-establish rational prices for natural gas and electricity', Galati said in a statement.
BMI Industry View
Metals SWOT
Industry Forecast
Steel: Little Growth Ahead
  Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Romania 2010-2018)
  Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Romania 2005-2012)
Regulatory Development
Commodities Forecast
Commodity Strategy
Ferrous Metals
Non-Ferrous Metals:
Aluminium: Prices To Remain Elevated Following Recent Dip
Copper: Chinese Weakness To Create Further Headwinds
Nickel: No Sustained Rally Ahead
Zinc: Subdued Short-Term Outlook Before Multi-Year Gains
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
Steel: Prices To Head Higher From 2016
  Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months)
Long-Term Outlook
Production: Chinese Rationalisation Measures To Bite
Consumption: Slowing Demand Growth On The Horizon
Burgeoning Chinese Exports Will Not Last
Eurozone Growth Downgrade Highlights Long Road To Recovery
Risks To Price Forecast
  Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Europe - Major Listed Metal Producers
Company Profile
  Table: Mechel - Financial Data
Company Overview
Company Strategy
Latest Financial Results
Company Details
Financial Data
  Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
Cross Checks
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