Poland Metals Report Q4 2014

Date: August 27, 2014
Pages: 55
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download
ID: P447762A262EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

The economic recovery in Poland continues to gather momentum, with leading and coincident indicators - particularly retail sales and wage growth - pointing towards improvements in domestic demand in addition to the export-driven real GDP growth that arrived in the second half of 2013. The acceleration in euro area growth, particularly in key trade partners such as Germany will continue to drive forward Polish export growth - especially in the autos sector. Furthermore, the recovery in international trade will continue to feed-through into the labour market, resulting in positive employment gains as hiring improves.

Real GDP grew 2.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Poland in Q413. While the reading was slightly lower than consensus expectations for 2.9%, BMI had been cautioning for some time that market expectations for Polish growth had been turning slightly too exuberant, despite the positive outlook. Nonetheless, the economic outlook for Poland remains highly encouraging, and we recently revised up our growth forecasts for 2014 to 2.8%, from 2.6% previously. Looking further ahead, we are forecasting growth of 3.1% in 2015. Although we are optimistic about Poland's growth prospects, we are more cautious regarding metal consumption and production prospects.
BMI Industry View
Metals SWOT
Industry Forecast
Steel: Waiting On An Autos Sector Recovery
  Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Poland 2010-2018)
  Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Poland 2005-2012)
Copper: Surplus To Stagnate
  Table: Poland - Refined Copper Production, Consumption & Balance ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
Regulatory Development
  Table: Poland - Political Outlook
Commodities Forecast
  Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
Short-Term Outlook
Core View
Surplus Set To Slim
Production: Reining In Growth
Consumption: Deceleration Ahead
No Respite From Chinese Exports Over Coming Months
Arbitrage Set To Grow Between East And West
Risks To Price Outlook
  Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
  Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, USD/tonne (average)
Commodity Strategy
Ferrous Metals:
Iron Ore: Price Slump Overdone, Stabilisation In Sight
Steel: Price Forecast Revised Up
Non-Ferrous Metals:
Aluminium: Recent Break Signals Multi-Month Strength
Copper: Subdued Prices Into Q314
Lead: Prices To Strengthen As Deficit Deepens
Nickel: H214 Rally Unlikely
Tin: More Resilient Than Other Metals
Zinc: Sustained Break Unlikely
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Europe - Largest Listed Metal Producers
Company Profile
  Table: KGHM - Key Financial Data
Company Overview
Company Strategy
Latest Financial Results
Company Details
Financial Data
  Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
Cross Checks
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