Poland Metals Report Q3 2014

Date: May 14, 2014
Pages: 54
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

The economic recovery in Poland continues to gather momentum, with leading and coincident indicators - particularly retail sales and wage growth - pointing towards improvements in domestic demand in addition to the export-driven real GDP growth that arrived in the second half of 2013. The acceleration in euro area growth, particularly in key trade partners such as Germany will continue to drive forward Polish export growth. Furthermore, the recovery in international trade will continue to feed-through into the labour market, resulting in positive employment gains as hiring improves.

Real GDP grew 2.7% y-o-y in Poland in Q413. While the reading was slightly lower than consensus expectations for 2.9%, BMI had been cautioning for some time that market expectations for Polish growth had been turning slightly too exuberant, despite the positive outlook. Nonetheless, the economic outlook for Poland remains highly encouraging, and we recently revised up our growth forecasts for 2014 to 2.9%, from 2.6% previously. Although we are optimistic about Poland's growth prospects, we are more cautious regarding metal consumption and production prospects. Key metal consuming segments such as autos and particularly construction will underperform.
BMI Industry View
Metals SWOT
Industry Forecast
Steel: Waiting On An Autos Sector Recovery
  Table: Poland - Steel Historic Data & Forecasts ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
  Table: Poland - Steel Historical Data ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
Copper: Surplus To Stagnate
  Table: Poland - Refined Copper Production, Consumption & Balance ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
Regulatory Development
  Table: Poland - Political Outlook
Commodities Forecast
Steel Price Forecast
  Table: BMI Steel Forecast
Short-Term Outlook
Core View
Global Steel Glut To Persist
Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term
Consumption: Growth Decelerating
Excessive Chinese Exports
Growing Arbitrage Between East & West
Risks To Price Outlook
  Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
  Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave)
Commodity Strategy
Iron Ore: Fading Iron Will
Steel: Global Glut To Weigh On Prices
Aluminium: Fundamentals To Remain Weak
Copper: All Eyes On China
Lead: Outperforming Its Troubled Peers
Nickel: Monthly Outperformer
Tin: Outperforming A Weak Field
Zinc: Further Consolidation Likely
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Europe - Largest Listed Metal Producers
Company Profile
  Table: KGHM - Key Financial Data
Company Overview
Company Strategy
Latest Financial Results
Company Details
Financial Data
  Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
Cross Checks
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