Poland Metals Report Q2 2014

Date: February 5, 2014
Pages: 51
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download
ID: P9505A5D00BEN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

The economic recovery in Poland continues to gather momentum, with leading and coincident indicators - particularly retail sales and wage growth - pointing towards improvements in domestic demand in addition to the export-driven real GDP growth that arrived in the second half of 2013. The acceleration in euro area growth, particularly in key trade partners such as Germany will continue to drive forward Polish export growth. Furthermore, the recovery in international trade will continue to feed-through into the labour market, resulting in positive employment gains as hiring improves. On the back of this improving outlook, we revised up our real GDP growth estimates for 2013 to 1.4% from 1.2% previously, and raised our forecast for 2014 to 2.6% from 2.3%. Although we are optimistic about Poland's growth prospects, we are more cautious regarding metal consumption and production prospects. Key metal consuming segments such as autos and particularly construction will underperform.

Looking at the longer term, we expect growth in Poland as an autos export hub to remain steady, though construction activity will be underwhelming. Production of steel, copper and lead will grow, but at a slower rate than demand. Investment into production facilities will be restrained by several factors including stagnant domestic mine production, higher taxes and low metal prices.
BMI Industry View
Metals SWOT
Industry Forecast
Steel: Waiting On An Autos Sector Recovery
  Table: Poland - Steel Historic Data & Forecasts ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise).
  Table: Poland - Steel Historical Data ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
Copper: Surplus To Stagnate
  Table: Poland - Refined Copper Production, Consumption & Balance ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise).
Regulatory Development
  Table: Poland - Political Outlook.
Commodities Forecast
Commodity Strategy
Steel: Locked In Secular Downtrend
Aluminium: US$1,800/tonne To Provide Strong Support
Copper: Bearish View In Place Despite Some Recovery
Nickel: Despite Recent Gains, Downside Risks Dominate
Zinc: Channelling Support
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI forecasts.
  Table: BMI Commodities Strategy.
Commodities Forecast
  Table: BMI Steel Forecast.
  Table: Steel Data And Forecasts, 2009-2017.
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Europe - Largest Listed Metal Producers.
Company Profile
  Table: KGHM - Key Financial Data.
Company Strategy
Latest Financial Results
Company Details
Financial Data
  Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
Cross Checks
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