Poland Metals Report Q1 2015

Date: November 19, 2014
Pages: 53
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The economic recovery in Poland continues to gather momentum, with leading and coincident indicators - particularly retail sales and wage growth - pointing towards improvements in domestic demand in addition to the export-driven real GDP growth that arrived in the second half of 2013. The acceleration in euro area growth, particularly in key trade partners such as Germany will continue to drive forward Polish export growth - especially in the autos sector. Furthermore, the recovery in international trade will continue to feed-through into the labour market, resulting in positive employment gains as hiring improves. This all bodes well for the metals industry in Poland, within which we are forecasting uninterrupted growth from 2014 through to the end of our forecast period in 2018.

Real GDP grew 2.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Poland in Q413. While the reading was slightly lower than consensus expectations for 2.9%, BMI had been cautioning for some time that market expectations for Polish growth had been turning slightly too exuberant, despite the positive outlook. Nonetheless, the economic outlook for Poland remains highly encouraging, and we recently revised up our growth forecasts for 2014 to 2.8%, from 2.6% previously. Looking further ahead, we are forecasting growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3.7% for 2016. Although we are optimistic about Poland's growth prospects, we are more cautious regarding metal consumption and production prospects.
BMI Industry View
Metals SWOT
Industry Forecast
Steel: Waiting On An Autos Sector Recovery
  Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Poland 2010-2018)
  Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Poland 2005-2012)
Copper: Surplus To Stagnate
  Table: Poland - Refined Copper Production, Consumption & Balance ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
Regulatory Development
  Table: Poland - Political Outlook
Commodities Forecast
Steel: Prices To Head Higher From 2016
  Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months)
Long-Term Outlook
Production: Chinese Rationalisation Measures To Bite
Consumption: Slowing Demand Growth On The Horizon
Burgeoning Chinese Exports Will Not Last
Eurozone Growth Downgrade Highlights Long Road To Recovery
Risks To Price Forecast
  Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
Commodity Strategy
Ferrous Metals
Non-Ferrous Metals:
Aluminium: Price Headwinds To Persist Despite Market Tightness
Copper: Bounce To Prove Temporary
Nickel: Multiple Price Headwinds To Persist
Zinc: No Sustained Gains
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Europe - Largest Listed Metal Producers
Company Profile
  Table: KGHM - Key Financial Data
Company Overview
Company Strategy
Latest Financial Results
Company Details
Financial Data
  Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
Cross Checks
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