Netherlands Metals Report Q2 2014

Date: March 12, 2014
Pages: 43
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

The Netherlands' metals sector is set for sound growth over the coming years as prices for high quality steel remain elevated and encourage production. Steel will continue to dominate the country's metals industry; however, we do not expect any significant new investment over the coming years. Tata Steel, the largest producer in the country is facing up to an increasingly hostile and competitive operating environment with cheap steel and aluminium being exported from China. However, opportunities remain in high-quality steel, which the Netherlands is a key producer.

In 2012, Dutch steel output experienced a strong decline as the year began with much uncertainty still surrounding the eurozone and the sluggish US economic recovery; however, efforts by eurozone leaders to rectify the European debt crisis as the year progressed were taken as reassurance by businesses and investors in 2012, and so steel production in the Netherlands picked up to close the year with a growth rate of -1.0% year-on-year (y-o-y), reaching 6.87mn tonnes (mnt). This follows two years of growth that saw output up 4.0% and 28.5% in 2011 and 2010 respectively. While this figure will have been disappointing after two consecutive years of positive growth, it could have been a lot worse had it not been for the rally in output in the second half of the year. Carrying on from the rally in production activity in H213, BMI estimates that steel production in the Netherlands grew once more in 2013, rising to around 6.95mn tonnes, equivalent to a growth rate of 1.0% y-o-y from 2012. Similarly, we estimate that steel consumption in the Netherlands turned around a 6.98% y-o-y contraction in growth in 2012 to record a 2.95% increase to 4.12mn tonnes in 2013.
BMI Industry View
Metals SWOT
Industry Forecast
Steel: Growth To Head Higher
  Table: The Netherlands - Steel Industry ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
  Table: Netherlands - Steel Industry Historical Data ('000 tonnes, unless stated).
Regulatory Development
  Table: The Netherlands - Political Overview
Commodities Forecast
Monthly Metals Update
Steel: Locked In Secular Downtrend
Aluminium: US$1,800/tonne To Provide Strong Support
Copper: Bearish View In Place Despite Some Recovery
Nickel: Despite Recent Gains, Downside Risks Dominate
Zinc: Channelling Support
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI forecasts
  Table: BMI Commodities Strategy.
Steel Price Forecast
  Table: BMI Steel Forecast.
Short-Term Outlook
Core View
Global Steel Glut To Persist
Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term
Consumption: Growth Decelerating
Excessive Chinese Exports
Growing Arbitrage Between East & West
Risks To Price Outlook
  Table: Steel Data & Forecasts.
  Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave)
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Largest Listed European Metals Producers
Company Profile
Tata Steel Limited
  Table: Tata Steel - Key Financial Data
Cross Checks
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