Japan Metals Report Q4 2014

Date: September 10, 2014
Pages: 58
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download
ID: J5581858801EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Japan's metal industry will see minimal growth to 2018 owing to the country's relatively weak long-term economic growth prospects. The country's construction, automotive, and infrastructure industries will see declining growth in the coming quarters. Moreover, subdued global steel prices on account of continued overcapacity, as well as the relatively high costs of production in Japan, will put downward pressure on Japanese steel producers.

We expect multi-year metal production and consumption to see minimal growth. Our metals industry forecasts are in line with our below-consensus outlook for Japanese economic growth in the coming quarters, which we see expanding 0.9% in 2014 and 0.8% in 2015. While Japan remains one of the largest producers and consumers of various industrial metals, it faces a declining share of world output and demand, as both China and India expand their global share of production and consumption. Moreover, we believe the positive impact of government stimulus measures in 2013 looks to be wearing off, and with companies facing pressures to hike wages, continued growth in capital expenditure will be hard to come by. This will act as a further headwind to domestic metal demand.
BMI Industry View
Metals SWOT
Industry Forecast
Steel: Headwinds Remain, Yet Sector To Remain Global Leader
Japan To Remain Global Leader To 2018
  Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Japan 2010-2018)
  Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Japan 2005-2012)
Aluminium: Modest Tailwinds Though Growth To Remain Subdued
Continued Reconstruction To Support Consumption
  Table: Aluminium Production & Consumption (Japan 2010-2018)
Copper: Constructive Production Outlook Relative To Consumption
Exports To Increase On Significant Surpluses
Consumption Trends To Remain Weak
  Table: Refined Copper Production, Consumption & Balance (Japan 2010-2018)
Regulatory Development
Foreign Investors Face Difficulties
Corruption Generally Minimal
  Table: Japan - Political Outlook
Commodities Forecast
  Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
Short-Term Outlook
Core View
Surplus Set To Slim
Production: Reining In Growth
Consumption: Deceleration Ahead
No Respite From Chinese Exports Over Coming Months
Arbitrage Set To Grow Between East And West
Risks To Price Outlook
  Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
  Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, USD/tonne (average)
Commodity Strategy
Ferrous Metals:
Iron Ore: Bounce Won't Last, Weakness In 2015
Steel: Long Road To Price Recovery
Non-Ferrous Metals:
Aluminium: Elevated Prices In Coming Weeks
Copper: Strength To Turn To Weakness By Q414
Lead: Price Bounce Underway
Nickel: Prices To Cool In Coming Months
Tin: Market Tightness To Drive Prices Higher
Zinc: Prices To Moderate By Q414
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Country To Remain Global Leader In Steel
  Table: Japan - Largest Listed Metal Companies
Company Profile
Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal
Latest Results
  Table: Nippon Steel - Supply Chain Analysis
  Table: Nippon Steel - Key Financial Data
JFE Holdings
Latest Results
  Table: JFE Holdings - Supply Chain Analysis
  Table: JFE Holdings - Financial Data
Cross Checks
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