Japan Metals Report Q3 2014

Date: May 21, 2014
Pages: 56
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We expect Japan's metal industry to see minimal growth over our five-year forecast period owing to our downbeat long-term macroeconomic view of the country. Continued reconstruction efforts from the earthquake over three years ago will help maintain production and consumption growth over the next several quarters, but we forecast the construction and infrastructure industries will see declining growth after 2015. Moreover, our bearish view on steel prices, as well as the relatively high costs of production in Japan, further underpins our view.

We expect multi-year metal production and consumption trends to see minimal growth, and in the case of copper consumption, to decrease. Our metals industry forecasts are in line with our view for the Japanese economy as a whole. Japan remains one of the largest producers and consumers of these metals, but faces a declining share of world output and demand, as both China and India expand their global share of production and consumption. Moreover, we believe the positive impact of government stimulus measures in 2013 looks to be wearing off, and with companies facing pressures to hike wages, continued growth in capital expenditure will be hard to come by. This will act as a further headwind to domestic metal demand.
BMI Industry View
Metals SWOT
Industry Forecast
Steel: Headwinds Beckon, But Collapse Not Near
Japan To Remain Among Top Producers Through 2018
  Table: Japan - Steel Production & Consumption (kt, Unless Stated Otherwise)
  Table: Japan - Historical Steel Production, Consumption & Trade (kt, Unless Stated Otherwise)
Aluminium: Modest Growth As Sector Recovers
  Table: Japan - Refined Aluminium Production & Consumption Forecasts ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
Copper: Production On Stronger Support
  Table: Japan - Refined Copper Production & Consumption Forecasts (kt, unless stated otherwise)
Regulatory Development
  Table: Japan - Political Outlook
Commodities Forecast
Steel Price Forecast
  Table: BMI Steel Forecast
Short-Term Outlook
Core View
Global Steel Glut To Persist
Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term
Consumption: Growth Decelerating
Excessive Chinese Exports
Growing Arbitrage Between East & West
Risks To Price Outlook
  Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
  Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave)
Commodity Strategy
Iron Ore: Chinese Stimulus Not A Game Changer
Steel: Gradual Rationalisation Insufficient To Boost Prices
Aluminium: Recent Rally Unlikely To Persist Into H214
Copper: Bearish Forecast Appears Well Placed
Lead: Picking Up Autos Sector Tailwinds
Nickel: Recent Rise To Fall Back In H214
Zinc: Potential Test Of Resistance In Coming Weeks
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Japan - Largest Listed Metal Companies
Company Profile
Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal
  Table: Nippon Steel - Financial Data
JFE Holdings
  Table: JFE Holdings - Financial Data
Cross Checks
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