Italy Metals Report Q4 2014

Date: September 17, 2014
Pages: 49
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The outlook for Italy's metals sector is far from encouraging, as a combination of cheap Chinese imports, low domestic demand and few project expansions mean that growth in consumption and production will be sluggish over the period to 2018. However, we expect Italy to retain its position as the EU's second largest steelmaking country, with a 16% share of production and the status of a new producer. In 2014, we are forecasting steel production in Italy to reach 27.06mn tonnes (mnt), representing an increase of 1.5% year-on-year (y-o-y). Similarly, we are forecasting steel consumption in Italy to rise by 1.4% y-o-y in 2014 to 22.53mnt.

Looking further ahead, we expect both production and consumption to enjoy uninterrupted y-o-y growth throughout the remainder of BMI's forecast period in 2018. We do expect the speed at which both consumption and production grow to slow during this period, however. By the close of 2018 BMI is forecasting production to reach 28,323,000 tonnes while consumption will reach 23,535,000 tonnes. A sustained period of growth - albeit rather modest - will come as a huge plus for the Italian steel industry which has struggled and been hit by a wave of headwinds in recent years. To be sure, steel market growth in 2013 represented a welcome turnaround from a contraction of 2.2% in production and 2.5% in consumption which was recorded in 2012. Monthly data from the first half of this year is certainly supportive of this view: during first six months of the year, 4 months have seen activity increase y-o-y and as of end of June 2014 production sat at a higher level that where it was at the 2013 year-end.
BMI Industry View
Metals SWOT
Industry Forecast
Steel: Few Positive Signs As Production Flatlines
Production: Plethora Of Issues To Deter Growth
Some Respite For Margins
Consumption: Muted Growth As Economy Flatlines
  Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Italy 2010-2018)
  Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Italy 2005-2012)
Commodities Forecast
Commodity Strategy
Ferrous Metals:
Iron Ore: Price Slump Overdone, Stabilisation In Sight
Steel: Price Forecast Revised Up
Non-Ferrous Metals:
Aluminium: Recent Break Signals Multi-Month Strength
Copper: Subdued Prices Into Q314
Lead: Prices To Strengthen As Deficit Deepens
Nickel: H214 Rally Unlikely
Tin: More Resilient Than Other Metals
Zinc: Sustained Break Unlikely
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Commodities Forecast
  Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
Short-Term Outlook
Core View
Surplus Set To Slim
Production: Reining In Growth
Consumption: Deceleration Ahead
No Respite From Chinese Exports Over Coming Months
Arbitrage Set To Grow Between East And West
Risks To Price Outlook
  Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
  Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, USD/tonne (average)
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Europe - Largest Listed Metals Producers
Company Profile
Recent Financial Data
  Table: Alcoa - Key Financial Data
Cross Checks
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Italy Metals Report Q1 2015 US$ 1,295.00 Dec, 2014 · 43 pages
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