Italy Metals Report Q3 2012

Date: August 8, 2012
Pages: 52
US$ 1,175.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

Download PDF Leaflet

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI’s Italy Metals Report for Q3 2012 examines the recent positive trends in the Italian steel industry and expresses concerns that growth is unsustainable in the context of a domestic slowdown and increased pressure on exports.

The report examines how metals producers are responding to the challenges posed by an increasingly precarious external macroeconomic environment. These challenges have affected exports and had an impact on the Italian consumer. The report considers these issues and also assesses the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short-term.

In the first four months of 2012, Italian crude steel output grew 3.4% y-o-y to 9.8mn tonnes (mnt), bucking the European trend. However, the EU’s second largest steel industry will not escape the effects of the eurozone crisis and BMI expects a decline in monthly output going into H212. While exports may stabilise at around 12mnt, a sharp fall in domestic demand will reduce output. Italy's economic backdrop will deter large-scale capital investments, meaning that a strong rebound in the steel market may be difficult to attain. The Italian steel industry will take at least two or three years to return to the level of production seen before the 2008 financial crisis when output typically exceeded 30mnt per annum (mntpa).

Italy's output of aluminium and alloy semi-finished products was estimated at 849,000 tonnes in 2011, up 0.4% y-o-y, according to the Italian non-ferrous metals association Assomet. Alcoa, the country's only primary aluminium producer, has repeatedly threatened to pull out of Italy due to high costs, disputes over subsidies and loss-making at its two smelting operations.

Controversy surrounds the future of Alcoa’s loss-making 150,000tpa Portovesme aluminium smelter, which it wishes to close in 2012 unless it finds a buyer. The closure of the Portovesme smelter would undermine the competitiveness of downstream aluminium alloy and metal works industries, which will be reliant on foreign producers for supplies due to the lack of primary metal. In March 2012, there were reportedly three potential investors – Glencore, Klesch and Hammerer Aluminium Industries – interested in taking over the smelter.

Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
  • We maintain our forecast of a 3.0% contraction in crude steel output to 27.8mnt for 2012. Imports are being more adversely impacted by the contraction in demand than domestic production.
  • The weakening of the euro is supporting Italian exports, although growth outside the EU is likely to slow down and Italian steelmakers will still be faced with increased competition from Turkey and Iran. Italy is set for a net steel trade surplus with countries outside the EU.
  • Domestic crude steel consumption is forecast to slump 8% to 31.3mnt in 2012, a revision from the 33.2mnt forecast in the previous quarter. Our more negative outlook comes amid fresh statistics that show a sharp industrial decline in Italy.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Italy Business Environment SWOT
Europe Metals Overview
Industry Forecast
  Table: Italy’s Steel Industry (’000 tonnes, unless otherwise stated)
  Table: Italy’s Steel Industry – Historical Data (’000 tonnes, unless otherwise stated)
  Table: Italy’s Primary Aluminium Industry (mn tonnes, unless otherwise stated)
Macroeconomic Outlook
Fiscal Retrenchment To Drive Recession
  Table: Italy’s GDP By Expenditure (Real Growth %)
Commodities Forecast
Steel To Average US$500/tonne In 2012
  Table: BMI Steel Forecasts
  Table: Steel Price Data, (US$/TONNE)
Monthly Metals Update
Steel Prices Have Topped Out
Copper: Relative Outperformer But Still Weak
Tin To Outperform
Aluminium: Substantial Support Around US$1,900/tonne
Nickel: Oversupply Pushing Prices Lower
Break Of Support On The Cards For Lead
Zinc: Downward Trend Continues
  Table: Select Commodities – Performance & BMI Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Company Profiles
  Table: Alcoa – Financial Data, 2005-2011
Sapa Profili
BMI Global Assumptions, Q312
  Table: Global Assumptions, 2010-2016
Developed States
  Table: Developed States’ Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013
Emerging Markets
  Table: Emerging Markets’ Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013
  Table: Real GDP Growth Consensus Forecasts, 2012 And 2013
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Cross Checks
Skip to top

Italy Metals Report Q4 2014 US$ 1,295.00 Sep, 2014 · 49 pages
Italy Metals Report Q1 2015 US$ 1,295.00 Dec, 2014 · 43 pages
Italy Metals Report Q2 2014 US$ 1,295.00 Mar, 2014 · 44 pages
Metals & Mining in Italy US$ 350.00 Jan, 2016 · 40 pages

Ask Your Question

Italy Metals Report Q3 2012
Company name*:
Contact person*:
Request invoice
Your enquiry:
Please click on a Check Box below to confirm you are not a robot: