Iran Metals Report Q3 2014

Date: April 30, 2014
Pages: 43
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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The outlook for Iran's steel sector remains poor; however, there are a few signs of light given the election of Hassan Rouhani and possible moderation in tone towards the West, which could result in a reduction in sanctions on the metals sector. On the whole, however, we are far from sanguine given our bearish outlook for steel prices and the fact that any rapprochement with the West, if indeed it happens, will be drawn out and not have a significant impact in the near term. We note with scepticism, Iran's plans to increase its steel capacity from 20mn tonnes per annum (mntpa) to 55mntpa by 2025, as well as a tripling of aluminium smelter capacity to 1.5mntpa.

While a cut in external trade has impacted negatively on the steel industry, isolation has ensured that imports have also been restricted. However, domestic industrial deficiencies in certain market segments mean that Iran will struggle to meet its own needs in spite of declining consumption. Crude steel output rose 11.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 13.27mn tonnes in the first 11 months of 2013, representing one of the strongest growth rates in the world, rivalling Turkey's.
BMI Industry View
Metals SWOT
Industry Forecast
Steel: Modest Growth Despite Sanctions
  Table: Iran - Steel Production Forecasts ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
  Table: Iran - Steel Production Historic Data ('000 tonnes, unless stated)
Regulatory Development
Tax Regime
  Table: Iran - Political Overview
Commodities Forecast
Commodity Strategy
Iron Ore: Fading Iron Will
Steel: Global Glut To Weigh On Prices
Aluminium: Fundamentals To Remain Weak
Copper: All Eyes On China
Lead: Outperforming Its Troubled Peers
Nickel: Monthly Outperformer
Tin: Outperforming A Weak Field
Zinc: Further Consolidation Likely
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Steel Price Forecast
  Table: BMI Steel Forecast
Short-Term Outlook
Core View
Global Steel Glut To Persist
Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term
Consumption: Growth Decelerating
Excessive Chinese Exports
Growing Arbitrage Between East & West
Risks To Price Outlook
  Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
  Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave)
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Production & Sales By Producer (2013)
  Table: Middle East - Largest Listed Metal Producers
Company Profile
Mobarakeh Steel Company
Cross Checks
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