Iran Metals Report Q1 2015

Date: October 29, 2014
Pages: 42
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download
ID: I7D9B3F4013EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

The outlook for Iran's metals sector is improving for the first time in years as sanctions begin to be eased following negotiations with the Western powers. On the whole, however, we are far from sanguine given our bearish outlook for steel prices and the fact that any rapprochement with the West, if indeed they happen, will be drawn out and not have a significant impact in the near term. We note with scepticism, Iran's plans to increase its steel capacity from 20mn tonnes per annum (mntpa) to 55mntpa by 2025, as well as a tripling of aluminium smelter capacity to 1.5mntpa.

While a cut in external trade has impacted negatively on the steel industry, isolation has ensured that imports have also been restricted. However, domestic industrial deficiencies in certain market segments mean that Iran will struggle to meet its own needs in spite of declining consumption. Crude steel output rose 11.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 13.27mn tonnes in the first 11 months of 2013, representing one of the strongest growth rates in the world, rivalling Turkey's.
BMI Industry View
Metals SWOT
Industry Forecast
Steel: Reduction In Sanctions To Allow Growth
  Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Iran 2010-2018)
  Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Iran 2005-2012)
Regulatory Development
Tax Regime
  Table: Iran - Political Overview
Commodities Forecast
Commodity Strategy
Ferrous Metals
Non-Ferrous Metals:
Aluminium: Prices To Remain Elevated Following Recent Dip
Copper: Chinese Weakness To Create Further Headwinds
Nickel: No Sustained Rally Ahead
Zinc: Subdued Short-Term Outlook Before Multi-Year Gains
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
Steel: Prices To Head Higher From 2016
  Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months)
Long-Term Outlook
Production: Chinese Rationalisation Measures To Bite
Consumption: Slowing Demand Growth On The Horizon
Burgeoning Chinese Exports Will Not Last
Eurozone Growth Downgrade Highlights Long Road To Recovery
Risks To Price Forecast
  Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Production & Sales By Producer (2013)
  Table: Middle East - Largest Listed Metal Producers
Company Profile
Mobarakeh Steel Company
Cross Checks
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