France Metals Report Q4 2014

Date: September 24, 2014
Pages: 50
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download
ID: F326E777F2AEN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: France's metals sector is set for an extended period of very modest growth through to the end of our forecast period in 2018, as major producers hold back on investment. Steel will continue to dominate the country's metals industry, but we do not expect any significant new investment. ArcelorMittal and Rio Tinto, the two largest producers in the country, are facing an increasingly hostile and competitive operating environment, with steel still cheap on a relative basis and aluminium being exported from China. We therefore do not expect France to return to pre-2008 rates of production or consumption before the end of our forecast period to 2018.

Uncertainty surrounds the future of ArcelorMittal's Florange steel mill, which has turned into an increasingly fraught political dispute. By 2013 a deal by the government to save the plant from closure with a five-year investment programme appeared to have failed due to technical difficulties, but it seemed unlikely the government would carry through with its threat to nationalise the facility.
BMI Industry View
Metals SWOT
Industry Forecast
Steel: Weak Growth Outlook As Economy Stalls
Demand: Muted Outlook For Infrastructure And Autos
  Table: Steel Production & Consumption (France 2010-2018)
  Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (France 2005-2012)
Commodities Forecast
Commodity Strategy
Ferrous Metals:
Iron Ore: Price Slump Overdone, Stabilisation In Sight
Steel: Price Forecast Revised Up
Non-Ferrous Metals:
Aluminium: Recent Break Signals Multi-Month Strength
Copper: Subdued Prices Into Q314
Lead: Prices To Strengthen As Deficit Deepens
Nickel: H214 Rally Unlikely
Tin: More Resilient Than Other Metals
Zinc: Sustained Break Unlikely
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Commodities Forecast
  Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
Short-Term Outlook
Core View
Surplus Set To Slim
Production: Reining In Growth
Consumption: Deceleration Ahead
No Respite From Chinese Exports Over Coming Months
Arbitrage Set To Grow Between East And West
Risks To Price Outlook
  Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
  Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, USD/tonne (average)
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Metals Industry - Key Facilities
  Table: Largest Listed European Listed Metals Producers
Company Profile
Rio Tinto
Company Overview
Company Strategy
Latest Financial Results
  Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data
Company Overview
Company Strategy
Latest Financial Results
Company Details
Financial Data
  Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
Cross Checks
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