China Metals Report Q4 2014

Date: November 5, 2014
Pages: 76
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: China's metals industry is set to face a protracted period of slowing growth as the country's rebalancing process begins in earnest. Companies operating in sectors that are tied heavily to the construction industry will take the brunt of weakness from the sharp slowdown in fixed asset investment.

With the Chinese economy on course for a continued slowdown over the coming years, we expect China's metals industry to come under pressure. The rebalancing of the Chinese economy away from fixed-asset investment and towards private consumption will significantly dampen appetite for construction-related materials. In particular, metals such as steel and refined nickel will be adversely affected due to their heavy usage in the construction sector.
BMI Industry View
Metals SWOT
Industry Forecast
Steel: Tough Times Ahead
Demand: Weakness Ahead, Longs To Underperform
Production: Boom Years Are Over
No Sustainable Lifeline From Exports
Production To Shift Westwards
  Table: China - Steel Prices (USD/tonne, Domestic Price Unless Stated Otherwise)
  Table: Steel Production & Consumption (000 tonnes, Unless Stated Otherwise) (China 2010-2018)
  Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (000 tonnes, Unless Stated Otherwise) (China 2005-2012)
Aluminium: Shifting West, Growing Surplus
  Table: Aluminium Production & Consumption (China 2010-2018)
Copper: Slowdown In Sight
Economic Slowdown To Hit Consumption Growth
  Table: Refined Copper Production, Consumption & Balance (China 2010-2018)
Lead: Autos Sector To Lend Support
  Table: Refined Lead Production, Consumption & Balance (China 2010-2018)
Nickel: Rocked By Indonesia Export Ban
  Table: China - Refined Nickel Production & Consumption (China 2010-2018)
Tin: Import Reliance On The Way Up
  Table: Refined Tin Production, Consumption & Balance (China 2010-2018)
Zinc: Dragged By Embattled Steel Sector
  Table: Refined Zinc Production, Consumption & Balance (China 2010-2018)
Regulatory Development
  Table: China - Announced Steel Capacity Cuts By Province For 2014 (kt)
  Table: Political Overview
Commodities Forecast
Commodity Strategy
Ferrous Metals:
Iron Ore: Bounce Won't Last, Weakness In 2015
Steel: Long Road To Price Recovery
Non-Ferrous Metals:
Aluminium: Elevated Prices In Coming Weeks
Copper: Strength To Turn To Weakness By Q414
Lead: Price Bounce Underway
Nickel: Prices To Cool In Coming Months
Tin: Market Tightness To Drive Prices Higher
Zinc: Prices To Moderate By Q414
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Commodities Forecast
  Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
Short-Term Outlook
Core View
Surplus Set To Slim
Production: Reining In Growth
Consumption: Deceleration Ahead
No Respite From Chinese Exports Over Coming Months
Arbitrage Set To Grow Between East And West
Risks To Price Outlook
  Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
  Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, USD/tonne (average)
Competitive Landscape
  Table: China - Largest Listed Metal Producers
Company Profile
Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco)
Company Overview
Latest Financial Results
  Table: Supply Chain Analysis
Angang Steel
Baoshan Iron & Steel
Cross Checks
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