China Metals Report Q1 2015

Date: November 19, 2014
Pages: 86
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: China's metals industry is set to face more pain ahead in the face of cooling Chinese economic growth and Beijing pledge to induce more supply discipline in heavy industry.

We expect China's metals industry to come under pressure from cooling Chinese economic growth over the coming years. More domestic smelters will struggle to survive in the face of falling profit margins, sluggish demand and waning support from the local governments. The rebalancing of China's economy away from fixed asset investment and towards private consumption will significantly drag on demand growth for construction-related materials. Industrial metals such as steel and nickel will be particularly affected given their heavy exposure to the construction sector.
BMI Industry View
  Table: China - Capacity Elimination Tasks For 2014
Metals SWOT
Industry Forecast
Aluminium: Rising Surplus As Production Shifts West
  Table: Aluminium Production & Consumption (China 2010-2018)
Copper: Persistent Import Reliance
  Table: Refined Copper Production, Consumption & Balance (China 2010-2018)
Lead: Slipping Into Deficit
  Table: Refined Lead Production, Consumption & Balance (China 2010-2018)
Nickel: Rocked By Indonesia Export Ban
  Table: Indonesia - Export Restrictions On Select Commodities
  Table: Refined Nickel Production & Consumption (China 2010-2018)
Steel: On Precarious Ground
Production: Boom Years Are Over
No Sustainable Lifeline From Exports
  Table: China - Crude Steel Production, Consumption & Balance
  Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (China 2005-2012)
Tin: Import Dependency To Increase
  Table: Refined Tin Production, Consumption & Balance (China 2010-2018)
Zinc: Dragged By Embattled Steel Sector
  Table: Refined Zinc Production, Consumption & Balance (China 2010-2018)
Regulatory Development
  Table: China - Announced Steel Capacity Cuts By Province For 2014 (kt)
  Table: China - Political Overview
Commodities Forecast
Commodity Strategy
Ferrous Metals
Non-Ferrous Metals:
Aluminium: Price Headwinds To Persist Despite Market Tightness
Copper: Bounce To Prove Temporary
Nickel: Multiple Price Headwinds To Persist
Zinc: No Sustained Gains
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
Steel: Prices To Head Higher From 2016
  Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months)
Long-Term Outlook
Production: Chinese Rationalisation Measures To Bite
Consumption: Slowing Demand Growth On The Horizon
Burgeoning Chinese Exports Will Not Last
Eurozone Growth Downgrade Highlights Long Road To Recovery
Risks To Price Forecast
  Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
  Table: China - Largest Listed Metal Producers
Company Profile
Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco)
Company Overview
Latest Financial Results
  Table: Supply Chain Analysis
  Table: Chalco - Key Financial Data
Angang Steel
  Table: Angang Steel - Key Financial Data
Baoshan Iron & Steel
  Table: Baoshan Iron & Steel - Key Financial Data
Cross Checks
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