Canada Metals Report Q4 2014

Date: October 8, 2014
Pages: 64
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Canada's trade relationships with both the US and Mexico will encourage output growth in its metals industry to 2018, as the country remains a net exporter in refined metal. Increasing manufacturing and industrial activity in the latter two countries should help drive demand for metal inputs. Moreover, a weaker Canadian dollar against the US dollar should provide upside for Canadian exports.

Our forecast for accelerating economic growth in the US and Mexico, combined with our view that the Canadian dollar (CAD) will weaken further in the coming quarters, leads us to expect the Canadian metals sector will see expansion to 2018. Indeed, we expect both the US and Mexico will experience positive trends in real GDP growth in the coming years, with automotive and general manufacturing activity picking up. We estimate 2014 real GDP growth of 2.1% and 2.6% in the US and Mexico, and forecast stronger growth of 2.6% and 3.7%, respectively, in 2015. For the period of 2015-2018, we see real GDP growth averaging 2.5% in the US and 3.8% in Mexico.
BMI Industry View
Metals SWOT
Industry Forecast
Steel: Low But Steady Growth Ahead
Domestic Output To Lag Demand
Modest Consumption Supported
  Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Canada 2010-2018)
  Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Canada 2005-2012)
Nickel: Export Demand To Support Sector
Indonesian Ore Ban Upside For Canada
  Table: Refined Nickel Production & Consumption (Canada 2010-2018)
Aluminium: Canada To Be Top North American Supplier
Canada To Lead In Americas
Majority To Be Exported
  Table: Aluminium Production & Consumption (Canada 2010-2018)
Regulatory Development
Recent Updates
Local Consultation & Environmental Stewardship To Remain Top Priorities
Tax Regime
  Table: Canada Political Overview
Commodities Forecast
Commodity Strategy
Ferrous Metals:
Non-Ferrous Metals:
Aluminium: Prices To Remain Elevated Following Recent Dip
Copper: Chinese Weakness To Create Further Headwinds
Nickel: No Sustained Rally Ahead
Zinc: Subdued Short-Term Outlook Before Multi-Year Gains
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
Steel: Prices To Head Higher From 2016
  Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months)
Long-Term Outlook
Production: Chinese Rationalisation Measures To Bite
Consumption: Slowing Demand Growth On The Horizon
Burgeoning Chinese Exports Will Not Last
Eurozone Growth Downgrade Highlights Long Road To Recovery
Risks To Price Forecast
  Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Canada - Largest Listed Metals Companies
Company Profile
Company Overview
Company Strategy
Latest Financial Results
Company Details
Financial Data
  Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
Rio Tinto
Company Overview
Company Strategy
Latest Financial Results
  Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data
US Steel
Company Overview
Company Strategy
Latest Results
  Table: US Steel - Supply Chain Analysis
  Table: Financial Data
Address Details
Cross Checks
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