Canada Metals Report Q3 2014

Date: July 16, 2014
Pages: 66
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download
ID: C936340133CEN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Canada's economic exposure to both the US and Mexico will enable output growth in its metals industry to 2018, particularly as the majority of Canadian metal production is exported. Increasing manufacturing and industrial activity in both countries should help drive demand for metal inputs. Moreover, a weaker Canadian dollar against the US dollar should provide upside for Canadian metals exporters.

Our constructive outlook towards economic growth in the US and Mexico, combined with view that the Canadian dollar (CAD) will weaken in the coming quarters, leads us to expect the Canadian metals sector will see expansion to 2018. Indeed, we expect both the US and Mexico will experience positive trends in real GDP growth in the coming years, with automotive and general manufacturing activity picking up. We forecast real GDP growth of 2.4% and 3.1% in the US and Mexico, respectively, in 2014. Though Q114 real GDP growth in the US was revised downward in June 2014 to a seasonally adjusted, annualised rate (SAAR) of -2.9%, which will likely result in us lowering our growth forecast for this year to 1.9-2.2%, we maintain our view that the US economy is considerably stronger than in previous years and will continue to see growth on a multi-year basis. In 2015-2018, we see real GDP growth averaging 2.5% in the US and 3.8% in Mexico.
BMI Industry View
Metals SWOT
Industry Forecast
Steel: Low But Steady Growth Ahead
Production To Lag Consumption
Consumption To Remain Supported
  Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Canada 2010-2018)
  Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Canada 2005-2012)
Aluminium: Labour Disputes To Affect Production
Country To Remain Top Producer
Majority Of Aluminium To Be Exported
  Table: Aluminium Production & Consumption (Canada 2010-2018)
Nickel: Uncertainty Over External Demand & Concentrate Supply
Indonesia To Present Upside For Canada
  Table: Refined Nickel Production & Consumption (Canada 2010-2018)
Regulatory Development
Local Consultation & Environmental Stewardship To Remain Priorities
Tax Regime
  Table: Canada Political Overview
Commodities Forecast
  Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
Short-Term Outlook
Core View
Surplus Set To Slim
Production: Reining In Growth
Consumption: Deceleration Ahead
No Respite From Chinese Exports Over Coming Months
Arbitrage Set To Grow Between East And West
Risks To Price Outlook
  Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
  Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, USD/tonne (average)
Commodity Strategy
Ferrous Metals:
Iron Ore: Price Slump Overdone, Stabilisation In Sight
Steel: Price Forecast Revised Up
Non-Ferrous Metals:
Aluminium: Recent Break Signals Multi-Month Strength
Copper: Subdued Prices Into Q314
Lead: Prices To Strengthen As Deficit Deepens
Nickel: H214 Rally Unlikely
Tin: More Resilient Than Other Metals
Zinc: Sustained Break Unlikely
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Canada - Largest Listed Metals Companies
Company Profile
US Steel
Recent Financial Results
  Table: US Steel - Key Financial Data
Company Overview
Company Strategy
Latest Financial Results
Company Details
Financial Data
  Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
Rio Tinto
Company Overview
Company Strategy
Latest Financial Results
  Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data
Cross Checks
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