Australia Metals Report Q4 2014

Date: August 20, 2014
Pages: 61
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download
ID: A8FC683B379EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We expect subdued growth in both production and consumption of most metals in Australia as a weakening global commodity market continues to take its toll on the economy. While significant additional global monetary stimulus should help to boost metal prices in the near term, the bout of loosening measures will be insufficient to stem the slowdown and the medium-term outlook for metals remains weak. The slowdown in the metals industry in Australia is best exemplified by monthly crude steel production, which has continued to slide into negative territory following growth in 2013. Weak demand from slowing domestic construction and a cooling export market will continue to undermine Australia's steel industry in H214 and 2015. We do not expect crude to approach pre-crisis levels for many years. The country's two dominant steel producers, BlueScope Steel Ltd and Arrium Ltd (previously known as OneSteel Ltd), have embarked on a series of consolidation plans and restructuring programmes aimed at reducing operating costs and curbing overcapacity amid an environment of weak demand and declining steel prices.
BMI Industry View
Metals SWOT
Industry Forecast
Steel: Construction Slowdown To Dominate
  Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Australia 2010-2018)
  Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Australia 2005-2012)
Aluminium: Slow Growth To 2017
  Table: Aluminium Production & Consumption (Australia 2010-2018)
Nickel: Future Lies In Queensland Nickel's Hands
  Table: Refined Nickel Production
Regulatory Development
Tax Regime
  Table: Australia - Political Summary
Commodities Forecast
  Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
Short-Term Outlook
Core View
Surplus Set To Slim
Production: Reining In Growth
Consumption: Deceleration Ahead
No Respite From Chinese Exports Over Coming Months
Arbitrage Set To Grow Between East And West
Risks To Price Outlook
  Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
  Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, USD/tonne (average)
Commodity Strategy
Ferrous Metals:
Iron Ore: Price Slump Overdone, Stabilisation In Sight
Steel: Price Forecast Revised Up
Non-Ferrous Metals:
Aluminium: Recent Break Signals Multi-Month Strength
Copper: Subdued Prices Into Q314
Lead: Prices To Strengthen As Deficit Deepens
Nickel: H214 Rally Unlikely
Tin: More Resilient Than Other Metals
Zinc: Sustained Break Unlikely
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Australia - Largest Listed Metal Producers
Company Profile
  Table: Arrium Ltd - Financial Data
Rio Tinto
Company Overview
Company Strategy
Latest Financial Results
  Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data
Cross Checks
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