Australia Metals Report Q3 2014

Date: April 30, 2014
Pages: 59
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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BMI View: We expect subdued growth in both production and consumption of most metals in Australia as a weakening global commodity market continues to take its toll on the economy. While significant additional global monetary stimulus should help to boost metal prices in the near term, the bout of loosening measures will be insufficient to stem the slowdown and the medium-term outlook for metals remains weak.

The slowdown in the metals industry in Australia is best exemplified by monthly crude steel production, which has continued to slide into negative territory following growth in 2013. Weak demand from slowing domestic construction and a cooling export market will continue to undermine Australia's steel industry in 2014. We do not expect crude to approach pre-crisis levels for many years. The country's two dominant steel producers, BlueScope Steel Ltd and Arrium Ltd (previously known as OneSteel Ltd), have embarked on a series of consolidation plans and restructuring programmes aimed at reducing operating costs and curbing overcapacity amid an environment of weak demand and declining steel prices.
BMI Industry View
Metals SWOT
Industry Forecast
Steel: Construction Slowdown To Dominate
  Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Australia 2010-2018)
  Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Australia 2005-2012)
Aluminium: Slow Growth To 2017
  Table: Aluminium Production & Consumption (Australia 2010-2018)
Zinc: Output Growth Heading Towards Negative Territory
  Table: Refined Zinc Production, Consumption & Balance (Australia 2010-2018)
Regulatory Development
Tax Regime
  Table: Australia - Political Summary
Commodities Forecast
Commodity Strategy
Iron Ore: Fading Iron Will
Steel: Global Glut To Weigh On Prices
Aluminium: Fundamentals To Remain Weak
Copper: All Eyes On China
Lead: Outperforming Its Troubled Peers
Nickel: Monthly Outperformer
Tin: Outperforming A Weak Field
Zinc: Further Consolidation Likely
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Steel Price Forecast
  Table: BMI Steel Forecast
Short-Term Outlook
Core View
Global Steel Glut To Persist
Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term
Consumption: Growth Decelerating
Excessive Chinese Exports
Growing Arbitrage Between East & West
Risks To Price Outlook
  Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
  Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave)
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Australia - Largest Listed Metal Producers
Company Profile
  Table: Arrium Ltd - Financial Data
Rio Tinto
Company Overview
Company Strategy
Latest Financial Results
  Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data
Cross Checks
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