Venezuela Power Report Q4 2016

Date: August 10, 2016
Pages: 53
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The outlook for Venezuela's beleaguered power sector has not improved this quarter, with widespread power outages, a consequence of a prolonged drought and heavy losses from ageing infrastructure, crippling the country and contributing to further social unrest and political uncertainty. While some hydropower output is reportedly coming back online over the coming months as water levels at the key Guri dam improve, overall we expect to see a sharp decrease in total electricity generation in 2016. Several new power plants are under development in the country, enhancing capacity over the medium term. However, the investment environment in Venezuela, where there is a history of state appropriation of assets and widespread corruption, will remain a deterrent to the much-needed large-scale development.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends
  • Adding to the woes of Venezuela's power sector, workers at Corpoelec, the state-owned energy giant, are undertaking a widespread strike in early July, protesting at delays to the confirmation of a new collective agreement. The strike comes amid escalating public protests over food and medicine shortages while low oil prices, high inflation and a poor business environment will see Venezuela's recession stretch into its third year in 2016, and persist until 2018.
  • While the electricity rationing has ended, according to a July 2016 statement from Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, the electricity supply scenario remains in a precarious position. We are maintaining our current forecast for a 0.66% fall in total electricity generation over 2016, with an increase in thermal output failing to entirely compensate for the drop-off in hydropower generation.
  • In light of the weak economic environment, we do not expect to see any major investment in the power sector above the current, limited, project pipeline. As such we forecast only limited gains in total electricity capacity and generation over the course of the forecast period through to 2025, leaving Venezuela vulnerable to further supply shortages.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Venezuela 2015-2021)
Industry Forecast
Venezuela Snapshot
  Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Venezuela 2015-2020)
  Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data (Venezuela 2020-2025)
  Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Venezuela Power Forecast Scenario
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
Thermal Generation And Capacity Forecast
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast
Total Electricity Generation And Capacity Forecasts
  Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2014-2019)
  Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2020-2025)
  Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2014-2019)
  Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2020-2025)
Electricity Consumption
  Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2014-2019)
  Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2020-2025)
Transmission And Distribution
  Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2014-2019)
  Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2020-2025)
  Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2014-2019)
  Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2020-2025)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
LatAm Risk & Reward Index (RRI): Macroeconomic Dynamics Weighing On Outlook
Venezuela Power Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Key Policies And Market Structure
Regulation And Competition
Venezuela Power Projects Database
  Table: Venezuela - Top 10 Projects By Capacity Type (MW)
Competitive Landscape
Regional Overview
LatAm Power: Key Regional Themes
  Table: New Opportunities In LatAm Power Transmission Sector
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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