Venezuela Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

Date: May 4, 2016
Pages: 105
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We maintain our cautious outlook for Venezuela's oil and gas sector despite vast belowground potential and ambitious production plans by state-owned PDVSA. We expect Venezuela will underperform, given the large scope of above-ground challenges, including excessive political interference, chronic underinvestment, an unattractive operating environment and the precarious financial situation of PDVSA. Moreover, sustained weakness in global oil prices will deteriorate production growth prospects as PDVSA and international investors face declining revenues and a reduction in available capex funds.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts
  • Our crude production forecast for 2016 was downgraded this quarter to a contraction of 5.0% y-o-y amid sustained weakness in crude oil markets. This will negatively impact available investment in Venezuela's upstream sector as the government contends with its sizeable public sector spending plans.
  • President Nicolas Maduro announced an increase in the country's subsidised fuel prices for the first time in two decades on February 17, with prices taking effect on the 19th. Heavily discounted fuel has long been a key tenant of the ruling Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV) party, many of whose members believe near free fuel to be an innate right of the Venezuelan people. This historic reform underscores the extent to which government debt has become unsustainable under the existing fiscal regime as oil prices remain at historic lows.
  • Venezuela's downstream sector continues to suffer from a lack of maintenance and underinvestment. This was illustrated by the blackout at the country's two largest refineries in October 2015, and the 50% utilisation rate reported at the 955,000b/d Paraguana Complex in March 2016.
  • Exports of crude and refined products will decline as upstream activity wanes. Low fuel prices will prop up domestic demand and weigh on available export quantities over the remainder of our 10-year forecast period. Moreover, imports of newly liberalised US crude will increase over the next year, given strong demand for light crude for blending purposes.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Headline Forecasts (Venezuela 2014-2020)
Latest Updates and Key Forecasts
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Upstream Projects
  Table: Venezuela - Major Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends:
  Table: Oil Production (Venezuela 2014-2019)
  Table: Oil Production (Venezuela 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Production (Venezuela 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Production (Venezuela 2020-2025)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Venezuela 2014-2019)
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Venezuela 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Products Consumption (Venezuela 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Products Consumption (Venezuela 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Consumption (Venezuela 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Consumption (Venezuela 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Crude Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Venezuela 2014-2020)
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Venezuela 2020-2025)
Refined Products
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Venezuela 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Venezuela 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Venezuela 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Venezuela 2020-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Latin America - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index
Composite RRI: Industry Downturn Weighs On Regional Performance
Upstream: Few Shifts, But Changes Loom
  Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
  Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Venezuela - Risk/Reward Index
Venezuela Upstream Index - Overview
Downstream Index - Overview
Market Overview
Venezuela Energy Market Overview
State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
International Energy Relations
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
  Table: Active Refineries In Venezuela
Oil Pipelines
LNG Terminals
Gas Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
  Table: Key Players - Venezuela Oil & Gas Sector
  Table: Key Upstream Players
  Table: Key Downstream Player
Company Profile
  Table: Major Upstream Assets in Venezuela
  Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn)
  Table: Major Upstream Assets in Venezuela
  Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn)
Repsol Venezuela
  Table: Major Upstream Assets In Venezuela
  Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn)
Total Venezuela
  Table: Major Upstream Assets In Venezuela
  Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn)
Regional Overview
Latin America Overview
  Table: Latin America Oil And Gas Production, Refining Capacity And Trade, 2014-2025
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Weighting
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