Uzbeksitan Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011

Date: January 22, 2011
Pages: 78
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

This new Uzbekistan Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.97% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 0.63% of supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 is forecast to rise to 6.05mn b/d in 2010. It should increase to around 6.89mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 8.89mn b/d in 2001 and is expected to average 13.82mn b/d in 2010. It is set to rise to 15.08mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.47mn b/d. This total is forecast to reach 7.76mn b/d in 2010 and 8.19mn b/d by 2015. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter.

In terms of natural gas, the region is forecast to consume 636.3bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 747.7bcm targeted for 2015 representing 17.5% growth. Production of a projected 787.9bcm in 2010 should reach 954.2bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 151.6bcm in 2010 to 206.5bcm by the end of the period. Uzbekistan’s share of consumption in 2010 is expected to be 7.78%, while its share of production is put at 8.25%. By 2015, its share of demand is forecast to be 7.49%, with the country accounting for 9.01% of supply.

For 2010 as a whole, we assume an average OPEC basket price of US$77.00/bbl (+26.5% year-on-year (y-o-y). The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$79.16/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$80.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$82.25, Brent at US$82.46/bbl, Urals delivering around US$81.21 and the Dubai average being US$80.74/bbl. Our central assumption for 2012 is an OPEC price averaging US$85.00/bbl, delivering WTI at approximately US$87.40 and Brent at US$87.60/bbl. From 2013 onwards, we are using an average OPEC price of US$90.00/bbl.

For the whole of 2010, the BMI assumption for the global gasoline price is an average US$87.49/bbl, representing a y-o-y rise of 24.7%. The global gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$88.00/bbl, peaking in December 2010 at more than US$95/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 27.6% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$89.50/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. BMI puts the 2010 average naphtha price at US$77.65/bbl, up almost 31% from 2009.

BMI forecasts Uzbekistan’s real GDP rising by 8.0% in 2010. We expect average annual growth of 8.2% from 2010-2015. By 2015, the country is estimated to be using 135,000b/d of oil. The majority of the known oil fields are operated by state-owned oil and gas group Uzbekneftegaz. It is forming partnerships with international companies under production sharing terms. While there is limited scope to halt the decline in oil production from around 105,000b/d, gas output is capable of rising 32.3% to 86bcm by 2015. Gas exports should therefore virtually double from 15.5bcm to 30.0bcm during the period.

Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast a decrease in Uzbek oil and gas liquids production of 18.2%, with volumes falling steadily to 86,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 62.9%, with growth averaging an assumed 5.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 173,000b/d by 2020. Gas production should rise from the estimated 2010 level of 65bcm to 100bcm by 2020, providing export potential increasing from an estimated 15.5bcm to 36.6bcm. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.

Uzbekistan now shares 11th place with Turkmenistan in BMI’s composite Business Environment Ratings (BERs) table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now has a share of eighth place with Croatia and Turkmenistan in BMI’s updated upstream ratings, ahead of Slovakia and Hungary. Its gas production growth outlook, gas reserves, and gas asset immaturity work in the country’s favour, but are undermined by an underwhelming risk environment. Uzbekistan is near the bottom of the league table in BMI’s downstream ratings, ranked equal 11th with Bulgaria, Slovenia and Slovakia, with few particularly high scores and progress further up the rankings unlikely over the next few quarters. Gas demand growth prospects represent a strong suit and Uzbekistan should be able to keep Croatia at bay.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Uzbekistan Business Environment SWOT
Uzbekistan Energy Market Overview
Global Oil Market Review
Regaining Momentum
Quarterly Trends
Global Oil Market Outlook
Sitting Comfortably
Oil Price Forecasts
Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook
Short-Term Demand Outlook
    Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Short-Term Supply Outlook
    Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
Longer-Term Supply And Demand
Oil Price Assumptions
    Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2010
    Table: Oil Price Forecasts
Regional Energy Market Overview
Oil Supply And Demand
    Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d)
    Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d)
Oil: Downstream
    Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Gas Supply And Demand
    Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm)
    Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm)
Liquefied Natural Gas
    Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)
Business Environment Ratings
Central/Eastern Europe Region
Composite Scores
    Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating
Upstream Scores
    Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating
Uzbekistan Upstream Rating – Overview
Uzbekistan Upstream Rating – Rewards
Uzbekistan Upstream Rating – Risks
Downstream Scores
    Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating
Uzbekistan Downstream Rating – Overview
Uzbekistan Downstream Rating – Rewards
Uzbekistan Downstream Rating – Risks
Risk Summary
Business Environment
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
    Table: Uzbekistan Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts
Other Energy
    Table: Uzbekistan Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
    Table: Refineries in Uzbekistan
Oil Pipelines
GTL Plants
Gas Processing Plants
Gas Storage Facilities
Gas Pipelines
Macroeconomic Outlook
    Table: Uzbekistan - Economic Activity
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
    Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies
Overview/State Role
Government Policy
Licensing Rounds
International Energy Relations
    Table: Key Upstream Players
    Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC) – Summary
Petronas– Summary
China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) – Summary
Tethys Petroleum – Summary
Sasol – Summary
Oil Exploration Operations Company – Summary
Zeromax – Summary
PetroVietnam – Summary
Others – Summary
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Demand
    Table: CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Regional Oil Supply
    Table: CEE Oil Production (000b/d)
Regional Refining Capacity
    Table: CEE Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Regional Gas Demand
    Table: CEE Gas Consumption (bcm)
Regional Gas Supply
    Table: CEE Gas Production (bcm)
Uzbekistan Country Overview
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Oil And Gas Ratings Methodology
    Table: Structure Of BMI’s Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings
    Table: BMI’s Upstream Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings – Methodology
    Table: BMI’s Downstream Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings – Methodology
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