Uzbekistan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

Date: June 15, 2016
Pages: 78
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: UD7C45F2272EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We expect Uzbekistan to remain a major producer and exporter of natural gas in the region thanks to its vast reserves and continuous exploration and development activities. Our outlook for the country's oil sector is much bleaker as faltering production levels and backward refining sector will leave the country increasingly dependent on refined products imports, posing substantial risk of fuel shortages.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
  • In late April 2016, South Korea-based Hyundai Engineering Company started building the USD2.66bn Kandym gas processing plant at the Kandym gas field. Construction of the processing plant is expected to be completed in H119, reports World Construction Network. The facility will have capacity to produce 8.2bcm of natural gas annually.
  • In May 2016, Uzbekneftegaz and Azerbaijan's state-owned energy company Socar signed a memorandum for cooperation and joint activity to work together in the fields of oil and gas exploration and development as well as seek other opportunities in the energy markets.
  • This quarter we have kept our previous forecast for Uzbekistan's oil reserves, which we expect to decline at an annual average rate of 2.0% over the coming decade, shrinking from an estimated 600mn bbl in 2015 to 490mn bbl in 2025. Although at a slower pace, gas reserves will also continue on a downward path, registering 0.6% annual decline per annum between 2016 and 2025.
  • Uzbekistan's oil production will continue to decline at an accelerating pace over the coming decade, shrinking from 83,470b/d in 2015 to 73,960b/d in 2025. The decline in crude oil production will be somewhat counter-balanced by gradually increasing natural gas liquids output.
  • After recording a strong 7.8% production growth in 2015, we project Uzbekistan's gas production to sustain positive momentum in 2016, expanding by additional 2.3% and reaching 71.6bcm. Over the longer-term, the new Kandym gas plant will support continued growth in the country's gas production levels from 2019 onwards, lifting the output to around 72.8bcm in 2025.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Headline Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2014-2020)
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Upstream Projects
  Table: Uzbekistan - Major Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Oil Production (Uzbekistan 2014-2019)
  Table: Oil Production (Uzbekistan 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Production (Uzbekistan 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Production (Uzbekistan 2020-2025)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Uzbekistan 2014-2019)
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Uzbekistan 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Products Consumption (Uzbekistan 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Products Consumption (Uzbekistan 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Consumption (Uzbekistan 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Consumption (Uzbekistan 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2014-2020)
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2020-2025)
Fuels Trade Forecasts
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2020-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
  Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
  Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index
Upstream: China Still The Target Market
  Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market
  Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Uzbekistan - Risk/Reward Index
Uzbekistan Upstream Index - Rewards
Uzbekistan Upstream Index - Risks
Uzbekistan Downstream Index - Overview
Uzbekistan Downstream Index - Rewards
Uzbekistan Downstream Index- Risks
Market Overview
Uzbekistan Energy Market Overview
Regulatory Structure
Fiscal Regime
  Table: Uzbekistan - Upstream Tax Regime
Licensing Regime
Licensing Rounds
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
  Table: Refineries In Uzbekistan
Oil Shale Plant
Oil Pipelines
Gas Processing Plants
Gas Storage Facilities
Gas Pipelines
Gas Filling Stations
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
  Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies
  Table: Key Upstream Players
  Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Profile
  Table: Major Upstream Assets in Uzbekistan
  Table: Key Financial Data
Regional Overview
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand Dependent
  Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies
  Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Weighting
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