Ukraine Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

Date: July 6, 2016
Pages: 81
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: A volatile security situation and continuing geopolitical tensions hamper exploration and production activities in Ukraine. Regulatory challenges, illustrated by recent tax hikes on oil, gas and mineral extraction, are expected to act as a further deterrent to investment in Ukraine's oil and gas sector. Despite Ukraine's significant gas supply diversification efforts, we expect the country will continue to depend to some extent on Russian gas supplies over the coming winters.

Key forecasts and developments:
  • We maintain our forecasts for oil and gas reserves this quarter. However, we note that Chevron and Shell's exits from their respective shale gas exploration projects create increasing downside risk to our gas reserves forecasts.
  • Downside risk to oil production exists over the coming year from a tax dispute between Ukrnafta and the Ukrainian state. In March 2016 the company received a formal notification from the State Service of Geology & Mineral Resources of Ukraine that 16 of its licenses could be suspended, in addition to three recent suspensions. According to the company, the suspension of these licenses would stop production of about 6,500b/d of crude oil, a significant proportion of the company's production and of the country's total 38,000b/d crude and condensates production in 2016.
  • Most of Ukraine's refineries remain closed as of 2016, leading to a severe underutilisation of its refining capacity. We maintain this situation will endure until an amelioration in the political, economic and security situation comes through.
  • Given the country's disastrous refining sector, crude net imports have fallen substantially over the past decade and are expected to remain low over the coming decade. Nevertheless, this has also translated into increasing refined products import requirements, as domestic production is insufficient to meet demand. Net imports of refined products will pick up speed as consumption recovers. This is unlikely to change unless the refining sector undergoes a significant revamp.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Headline Forecasts (Ukraine 2014-2020)
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Upstream Projects
  Table: Key Upstream Projects In Ukraine
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Oil Production (Ukraine 2014-2019)
  Table: Oil Production (Ukraine 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Production (Ukraine 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Production (Ukraine 2020-2025)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ukraine 2014-2019)
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ukraine 2020-2025)
Refined Fuel Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Products Consumption (Ukraine 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Products Consumption (Ukraine 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Consumption (Ukraine 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Consumption (Ukraine 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Crude Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ukraine 2014-2020)
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ukraine 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ukraine 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ukraine 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Reverse Flow Gas Pipeline Connection Capacity From EU To Ukraine
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Ukraine 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Ukraine 2020-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
  Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
  Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index
Upstream: China Still The Target Market
  Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market
  Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Ukraine - Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Ukraine Energy Market Overview
Regulatory Structure
Fiscal Regime
  Table: Ukraine Fiscal Regime Terms
Licensing Regime
  Table: Ukraine Licensing Regime
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
  Table: Refineries In Ukraine
Oil Pipelines
LNG Terminals
Gas Storage
Gas Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
  Table: Key Players - Ukraine Oil And Gas Sector
  Table: Key Upstream Players
  Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Profile
Naftogaz Ukrainy
Company Overview
  Table: Key Financial Data (UAHmn)
Regional Overview
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand Dependent
  Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies
  Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Weighting
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