Turkey Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

Date: May 4, 2016
Pages: 76
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: T6631B68AE3EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Turkey will continue to increase its consumption of crude oil, natural gas and refined fuels throughout our medium-term forecast period to 2020, remaining a net importer of all three. Positive exploration results in the Thrace Basin present upside risk to our gas production forecast.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Turkey's oil and gas sector are:
  • With Russian-Turkish relations in a precarious state, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has stated that moving away from Russian energy dependence is a priority, with Turkey importing more than 50% of its natural gas and 11% of crude oil from Russia in 2015. However, we anticipate little change to Russia's prominent role in Turkey's energy mix as, according to our Turkey Country Risk analysts, political rhetoric seldom has real economic implications.
  • The positive exploration results in the Thrace Basin show good prospectivity with the potential of further gas discoveries presenting upside risk. Over the long term we forecast natural gas production to fall, as output from conventional fields declines. Valeura Energy started selling gas from its Bati Gurgen 1 well adding an additional 0.034bcm to Turkey's gas production, raising it by 6.7%. Shell and TPAO completed the Sile-1 exploration well in the Black Sea in June 2015 and are currently evaluating results. Downside risk to development comes from capex cuts that all oil companies, to include Shell, are undertaking, leaving the ultra-deep and therefore very expensive Sile-1 particularly vulnerable.
  • In August 2015, construction began on a port for the State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR)'s Star Oil Refinery in Turkey. Work on Star Refinery is progressing rapidly, with SOCAR having spent USD2bn on the project so far, according to SOCAR Turkey President Kenan Yavuz.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Headline Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2020)
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Upstream Projects
  Table: Turkey - Key Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Oil Production (Turkey 2014-2019)
  Table: Oil Production (Turkey 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Production (Turkey 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Production (Turkey 2020-2025)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkey 2014-2019)
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkey 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Turkey 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Turkey 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Consumption (Turkey 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Consumption (Turkey 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkey 2014-2020)
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkey 2020-2025)
Fuels Trade Forecast
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkey 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkey 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkey 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkey 2020-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Turkey - Risk/Reward Index
Turkey Upstream Index
Turkey Downstream Index
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
  Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
  Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index
Upstream: China Still The Target Market
  Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market
  Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Turkey Energy Market Overview
Regulatory Structure
Fiscal Regime
  Table: Turkey - Upstream Tax Regime
Licensing Regime
  Table: Turkey - Contracts and Licensing Regime
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
  Table: Oil Refineries In Turkey
Service Stations
Oil Terminals/Ports
Oil Pipelines
LNG Terminals
  Table: LNG Terminals In Turkey
Gas Pipelines
Gas Storage
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
  Table: Key Players In Turkey's Oil & Gas Sector
  Table: Key Upstream Players
Company Profile
Türkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortakligi (TPAO)
  Table:   Table: Major Upstream Assets In Turkey
Turkish Petroleum Refineries Corporation (Tüpras)
  Table: Key Assets
  Table: Key Financial Data, USDmn
Regional Overview
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand Dependent
  Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies
  Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Weighting
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Turkey Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
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