Thailand Power Report Q3 2016

Date: June 1, 2016
Pages: 60
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: T71C781866BEN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Thailand's plan to reduce its reliance on gas-fired power generation will create opportunities for alternatives such as coal and renewables, which poses upside risks to our outlook for the country's energy related infrastructure. That said, the scale of upside risk has been limited somewhat following the announcement that EPAC has approved the construction of a new LNG import terminal at Rayong. We highlight that lower than expected power consumption over the near term means such opportunities will begin to have an impact on infrastructure construction only beyond 2017-2018 as projects are delayed until demand picks up. We retain a modest growth forecast for 2015 and 2016, with power generation set to grow by 3.0% and 3.1%, respectively.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends
  • The largest source of growth in 2016 will be thermal generation, while non-hydropower renewables will be the fastest growing sub-sector at 11.0%. Meanwhile, the Thai power sector's long-term growth outlook is muted, as the country continues to experience challenges in procuring gas supplies and is clearly moving towards increasing reliance on electricity imports. We see electricity generation growing at an average rate of 3.0% per annum between 2016-2025. Growth will be primarily driven by nonhydropower renewable energy generation and coal-fired generation. We see limited scope for expansion in gas-fired generation.
  • Thailand's Energy Policy Administration Committee (EPAC) in Q216 approved a plan by stateowned PTT Public Company to build a 5.0mn tonne per annum (tpa) LNG import terminal at Rayong. We are optimistic that the project will proceed because the new terminal will be crucial in meeting Thailand's rising LNG needs, amid falling domestic gas production and risks to the security of gas supply from Myanmar. The new terminal will cost THB36.8mn (USD1.06mn) and will be sited close to the country's only existing LNG terminal at Map Ta Phut. The government may request that the new terminal be built at a higher 7.5mn tpa capacity, at an additional cost of THB1.7mn (USD0.04mn).The 5.0mn tpa Map Ta Phut terminal will double in capacity from 2017.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Thailand 2015-2021)
Industry Forecast
Thailand Snapshot
  Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Thailand 2015-2020)
  Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data (Thailand 2020-2025)
  Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Thailand Power Forecast Scenario
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast
Thermal Generation And Capacity Forecast
Nuclear Generation And Capacity Forecast
  Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2014-2019)
  Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2020-2025)
  Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2014-2019)
  Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2020-2025)
Electricity Consumption
  Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2014-2019)
  Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2020-2025)
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
  Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2014-2019)
  Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2020-2025)
  Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2014-2019)
  Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2020-2025)
Transmission And Distribution
Industry Risk Reward Index
Asia Power RRI: China's Score Slipping, India Pushing Ahead
  Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
Thailand Power Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Key Policies And Market Structure
Regulation And Competition
Sustainable Energy Policies
Thailand Power Projects Database
  Table: Thailand - Top Ten Projects By Capacity Type
Competitive Landscape
Electricity Generating Authority Of Thailand (EGAT)
Glow Energy
Ratchaburi Electricity Generating Holding Public Company (RATCH)
Independent Power (Thailand)
Regional Overview
Asia - Asia Power: Shifting Fuel Dynamics, Coal Still King
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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