Thailand Power Report Q2 2016

Date: March 16, 2016
Pages: 55
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: TBF52160889EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Thailand's plan to reduce its reliance on gas-fired power generation will create opportunities for alternatives such as coal and renewables, which poses upside risks to our outlook for the country's energy related infrastructure. We highlight that lower than expected power consumption over the near term means such opportunities will begin to have an impact on infrastructure construction only beyond 2017-2018 as projects are delayed until demand picks up. We retain a modest growth forecast for 2015 and 2016, with power generation set to grow by 3.3% and 3.1% respectively.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends
  • The largest source of growth in 2016 will be thermal generation, while non-hydropower renewables will be the fastest growing sub-sector at 11.0%. Meanwhile, the Thai power sector's long-term growth outlook is muted, as the country continues to experience challenges in procuring gas supplies and is clearly moving towards increasing reliance on electricity imports. We see electricity generation growing at an average rate of 3.0% per annum between 2016-2025. Growth will be primarily driven by nonhydropower renewable energy generation and coal-fired generation. We see limited scope for expansion in gas-fired generation.
  • In September 2015, Thailand approved five public-private partnership (PPP) projects worth a total of about THB200bn (USD5.5bn) as part of the country's infrastructure development plan from 2015-2020. The projects will be submitted to the cabinet for authorisation in 2015, according to Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak (InfraPPP World). The approved projects include development of Bangkok's Metropolitan Rapid Transit (MRT) Pink Line and MRT Yellow Line. The THB56.7bn (USD1.56bn) first elevated train project will connect Kaerai and Min Buri, while the THB54.7bn (USD1.51bn) second project will connect Lat Phrao and Samrong. The government also approved the THB82.4bn (USD2.27bn) Blue Line extension, which will connect Bang Sue and Bang Khae. The preferred bidder will be required to operate and maintain the extension. The other two projects are the THB4.14bn (USD114mn) Nonthaburi waste-to-energy project and the THB2.25bn (USD62mn) Nakhon Ratchasima waste-to-energy facility.
  • The Thai government updated its green energy agenda with the ambitious 'Alternative Energy Development Plan' (2012-2021). The plan states 25% of total energy consumption must be derived from alternative energy sources by 2021. It targets 2 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity, 1.2GW of wind capacity and 3.63GW of biomass capacity within that timeframe.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Thailand 2015-2021)
Industry Forecast
Thailand Snapshot
  Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Thailand 2015-2020)
  Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Thailand 2020-2025)
  Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Thailand Power Forecast Scenario
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast
Thermal Generation And Capacity Forecast
Nuclear Generation And Capacity Forecast
  Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2014-2019)
  Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2020-2025)
  Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2014-2019)
  Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2020-2025)
Electricity Consumption
  Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2014-2019)
  Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2020-2025)
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
  Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2014-2019)
  Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2020-2025)
  Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2014-2019)
  Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2020-2025)
Transmission And Distribution
Industry Risk Reward Index
Asia Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100)
Thailand Power Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Key Policies And Market Structure
Regulation And Competition
Sustainable Energy Policies
Thailand Power Projects Database
  Table: Thailand - Top Ten Projects By Capacity Type
Competitive Landscape
Electricity Generating Authority Of Thailand (EGAT)
Glow Energy
Ratchaburi Electricity Generating Holding Public Company (RATCH)
Independent Power (Thailand)
Regional Overview
  Table: China Power Snapshot
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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