Sudan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011

Date: September 22, 2011
Pages: 63
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download
ID: SED33785657EN

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The latest Sudan Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 2.89% of African regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 5.70% of supply. African regional oil use was 3.61mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010. It should average 3.59mn b/d in 2011 and then rise to around 4.10mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 10.74mn b/d in n 2010. After dropping to an estimated 9.66mn b/d in 2011 because of the loss of Libyan volumes, it is set to rise to 12.91mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging behind the pace of supply expansion.

This total rose to 7.13mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 8.80mn b/d by 2015. Nigeria has the greatest production growth potential, with Angolan exports also set to climb significantly.

In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed 124.1bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 165.2bcm forecast for 2015. Production of 213.7bcm in 2010 should reach 300.2bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from 89.5bcm to 134.9bcm in 2015.

Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.2%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in the eurozone should be marginally higher than 2010, while US and Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will be negative, reflecting the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price assumption for 2011 is US$101.90 per barrel (bbl) for the OPEC basket, falling to US$97.50/bbl in 2012.

Sudan’s real GDP is forecast by BMI to fall by 10.9% in 2011. We are assuming average annual growth of 1.5% in 2011-2015. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 99,500b/d in 2011 to 118,700b/d in 2015. The oil industry is being restructured following the division of the country. Sudan in 2010 pumped an average 511,000b/d of oil. Assuming existing partnership deals are retained and/or new agreements are signed, there is potential for volumes to reach 735,000b/d by 2015.

Between 2011 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in oil and gas liquids production of 30.3%, with volumes peaking at 770,000b/d in 2016, before falling steadily to 710,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2011 and 2020 is set to increase by 45.1%, with growth slowing to an assumed 5.0% per annum towards the end of the period and oil use reaching 144,000b/d by 2020. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.

Sudan now resides in last place out of 12 regional markets, just behind Libya, in BMI’s composite Risk/Reward Ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. The country holds also occupies bottom spot in BMI’s updated upstream ratings. Sudan’s score suffers from the absence of gas resources and significant state influence. The risk profile of the separate northern and southern states will no doubt change over the medium term. Sudan is below the mid-point of the league table in BMI’s updated downstream Business Environment ratings, with few high scores and progress further up the rankings unlikely unless the energy market grows more rapidly or new refineries are built. It is ranked joint seventh, thanks to low scores for gas demand, country risk factors and nominal GDP.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Sudan Political SWOT
Sudan Economic SWOT
Sudan Business Environment SWOT
Sudan Energy Market Overview
Regional Market Overview
Oil Supply And Demand
  Table: Oil Consumption, 2008 2015 (000b/d)
  Table: Africa’s Oil Production, 2008-2015 (000b/d)
Oil: Downstream
  Table: Africa’s Oil Refining Capacity, 2008-2015 (000b/d)
Gas Supply And Demand
  Table: Africa’s Gas Consumption, 2008-2015 (bcm)
  Table: Africa’s Gas Production, 2008-2015 (bcm)
Liquefied Natural Gas
  Table: Africa’s LNG Exports, 2008-2015 (bcm)
Regional Risk/Reward Ratings
Composite Scores
  Table: Regional Composite Risk/Reward Ratings
Upstream Scores
  Table: Regional Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Downstream Scores
  Table: Regional Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Sudan Risk/Reward Rating
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
  Table: Sudan Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts
Other Energy
  Table: Sudan Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
  Table: Refineries In Sudan
Service Stations
Oil Storage Facilities
Oil Terminals/Ports
Oil Pipelines
Macroeconomic Outlook
  Table: Sudan – Economic Activity, 2006-2015
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
  Table: Key Players – Sudan Energy Sector
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
Licensing Rounds
International Energy Relations
  Table: Key Upstream Players
  Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
CNPC Sudan
ONGC Sudan
Petronas Sudan
Sinopec – Summary
Star Petroleum – Summary
Petrodar – Summary
Total – Summary
Ascom – Summary
Others – Summary
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Demand
  Table: Africa’s Oil Consumption, 2013-2020 (000b/d)
Regional Oil Supply
  Table: Africa’s Oil Production, 2013-2020 (000b/d)
Regional Refining Capacity
  Table: Africa’s Oil Refining Capacity, 2013-2020 (000b/d)
Regional Gas Demand
  Table: Africa’s Gas Consumption, 2013-2020 (bcm)
Regional Gas Supply
  Table: Africa’s Gas Production, 2013-2020 (bcm)
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology
Ratings Overview
  Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure
  Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology
  Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross Checks
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