South Africa Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

Date: July 6, 2016
Pages: 73
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: SD7079D397DEN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Major planned overhauls of the country's regulatory and fiscal regimes are a broad positive for the South African oil and gas sector. However, the pace of reform will likely remain slow and we see limited upside to the upstream sector over the short to medium term. As such, and despite relatively moderate oil consumption growth, domestic production will struggle to keep pace with demand driving a higher dependence on imports over the 10-year forecast period. Our outlook on the downstream segment is heavily bearish, due to ageing and poorly efficient refining capacity, weak profitability and limited appetite for investment.

Latest Updates & Key Trends:
  • The government has announced plans to reform legislation covering its oil and gas sector. Key reforms include the separation of oil and gas from mining laws, an increased role for the Department of Energy and the division of policies governing the upstream, midstream and downstream sectors.
  • While the reforms are broadly positive, replacing the amended Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Act, progress is liable to be slow and we do not expect major investment to return to the market over the short term.
  • Refining capacity will remain severely underutilised, as South African retailers opt for increasingly competitive refined fuel imports above domestic output. Globally, South African refiners are at a major disadvantage, due to a lack of domestic crude production, ageing infrastructure, inflated wage costs and frequent power outages.
  • Fuels consumption growth will remain relatively subdued, as high inflation and a weak currency weighs on consumer spending, whilst a poor macroeconomic outlook dulls demand in the domestic power and industrial sectors.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Headline Forecasts (South Africa 2014-2020)
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Major International Players In South Africa's Offshore
Upstream Projects
  Table: South Africa Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Oil Production (South Africa 2014-2019)
  Table: Oil Production (South Africa 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Production (South Africa 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Production (South Africa 2020-2025)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (South Africa 2014-2019)
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (South Africa 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Products Consumption (South Africa 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Products Consumption (South Africa 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Consumption (South Africa 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Consumption (South Africa 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Crude Oil
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (South Africa 2014-2020)
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (South Africa 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (South Africa 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (South Africa 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Net Exports (South Africa 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Net Exports (South Africa 2020-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Africa - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
  Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential
  Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity
  Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
South Africa - Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
South Africa Energy Market Overview
Regulatory Structure
Fiscal Regime
  Table: Main Fiscal Terms
Licensing Regime
Licensing Rounds
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
  Table: South Africa Main Refineries
Oil Pipelines
  Table: South Africa Main Oil Pipelines
Oil Trade Facilities
  Table: South Africa Main Oil Trading Facilities
Gas Pipelines
  Table: South Africa Main Gas Pipelines
Oil Storage Facilities
  Table: Oil Storage Main Facilities
Oil Terminals/Ports
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
  Table: Key Players In South African Oil And Gas Sectors
  Table: Key Upstream Player
  Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Profile
Latest Updates
  Table: Key Financial Data (ZARmn)
Regional Overview
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil
  Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Weighting
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