Slovakia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

Date: June 22, 2016
Pages: 65
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Slovakia has above-average energy import dependency compared with the regional average. The country remains reliant on Russia, but is actively pushing through several projects aimed at improving bi-directional flows and establishing regional links for a regional gas market in Central and South East Europe.

Key Trends And Developments
  • Slovakia is almost entirely dependent on Russian oil and gas imports for its domestic consumption, with a total hydrocarbon import bill estimated at USD1.9bn in 2015, a strong decline on 2014 thanks to the fall in oil and gas prices. There is little prospect for an increase in oil or gas production.
  • While we expect the 130,000b/d Bratislava refinery will continue to run at high utilisation rates, downside risk to refined fuels production exists, given the difficult context for European refiners as a whole. However, the refinery's focus on diesel production could partially shield it from the negative effect of increased gasoline production in the US. The country will remain a small net refined fuels exporter throughout our forecast period.
  • Gas consumption in Slovakia will stagnate, with a residential gas market close to saturation and no expansion planned in the already limited gas-fired power generation capacity.
  • Slovakia's refined fuels consumption will increase at a stable 1.5-2% y-o-y in the medium term, broadly in line with underlying GDP growth forecast and pulled up by the increasing vehicle fleet in the country. We have slightly revised down our oil consumption forecast on the basis of lower forecast vehicle fleet growth. Economic activity and GDP growth however is set to remain strong over the forecast period according to our Country Risk Team, providing some support to refined fuels consumption despite a slowing vehicle fleet size growth.
  • Ukraine signed a gas supply purchase agreement with Slovakia in early 2014. The deal allows Kiev to buy natural gas on the European spot market and annually import at least 10bcm of gas through Slovakia.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Headline Forecasts (Slovakia 2014-2020)
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Upstream Production - Oil
  Table: Oil Production (Slovakia 2014-2019)
  Table: Oil Production (Slovakia 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
  Table: Gas Production (Slovakia 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Production (Slovakia 2020-2025)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Slovakia 2014-2019)
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Slovakia 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Products Consumption (Slovakia 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Products Consumption (Slovakia 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Consumption (Slovakia 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Consumption (Slovakia 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Crude Oil Trade Forecast
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Slovakia 2014-2019)
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Slovakia 2020-2025)
Refined Products Trade Forecast
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Slovakia 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Slovakia 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Slovakia 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Slovakia 2020-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
  Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
  Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index
Upstream: China Still The Target Market
  Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market
  Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Slovakia - Risk/Reward Index
Slovakia Upstream Index - Rewards
Slovakia Upstream Index - Risks
Slovakia Downstream Index - Overview
Market Overview
Slovakia Energy Market Overview
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
  Table: Refineries In Slovakia
Service Stations
Oil Storage Facilities
Oil Pipelines
Gas Storage Facilities
Gas Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
  Table: Key Players - Slovak Oil And Gas Sector
  Table: Key Downstream Players
Regional Overview
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand Dependent
  Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies
  Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Weighting
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